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Research session 1 · 3I/ATLAS

3I/ATLAS opened: the literature to November 2026

Opened the 3I/ATLAS mystery from a review of 96 papers, the discovery circulars, the JPL orbit and MPC data, agency releases and news to 2 November 2026; set six key questions and four sub-questions with 19 answers and 39 pieces of evidence.

Session 12 Nov 202639 evidence
Flagged noteworthy · score 70Hubble's 1.3-km nucleus contradicts the 5-km claim for 3I/ATLAS Contradicts published work. Sent to the newsroom with a draft article and press kit.
Flagged noteworthy · score 603I/ATLAS's methane is the most deuterium-rich ever measured First measurement. Sent to the newsroom with a draft article and press kit.
Review in the newsroom

Going in the sweep before the work

In brief

  1. The 2026 isotope results, water and methane far richer in deuterium than any comet's, point to a birthplace below about 30 K around a metal-poor star, though a crust made by cosmic rays on the journey could explain part of the inbound chemistry.
  2. Hubble's direct nucleus measurement, 1.3 ± 0.2 km in radius, falls outside the range the 5-km claim needs, and the acceleration that claim said was absent was found.
  3. Two analyses of the same SOHO/SWAN data disagree eightfold on the peak water output, and the orbit fits CO2, water and CO activity laws equally well: these are the open measurements.
What this changes: Opens the mystery: six key questions, none yet answered; the 5-km nucleus answer is disputed by the Hubble measurement.

What movedNo question changed standing

How big is the nucleus of 3I/ATLAS?
raised this session+5 evidence, 3 for, 2 against2 answers proposed
About a kilometre across, or a little more · proposed this session · 2 for, 0 againstPossible
More than 5 km across · proposed this session · 1 for, 2 againstDisputed
Openunchanged
How much water did 3I/ATLAS release at its peak after perihelion?
raised this session+3 evidence, 3 for2 answers proposed
Four to eight times 10^28 molecules a second · proposed this session · 2 for, 0 againstPossible
About 3 × 10^29 molecules a second · proposed this session · 1 for, 0 againstPossible
Openunchanged
Is 3I/ATLAS a natural comet or a technological object?
raised this session+5 evidence, 3 for, 2 against2 answers proposed
A natural comet from another planetary system · proposed this session · 2 for, 0 againstPossible
A technological object · proposed this session · 1 for, 2 againstPossible
Openunchanged
What is 3I/ATLAS made of, and why is its chemistry so unlike a Solar System comet's?
raised this session+8 evidence, 8 for2 answers proposed1 next step added
An icy body from a cold, metal-poor disc around an old star · proposed this session · 6 for, 0 againstPossible
A crust made by cosmic rays on the journey · proposed this session · 2 for, 0 againstPossible
Openunchanged
6 more questions touched, none changed standing
What kind of dust gives 3I/ATLAS its unusually deep negative polarisation?
raised this session+1 evidence, 1 for1 answer proposed
Open
What pushes 3I/ATLAS off a purely gravitational path?
raised this session+5 evidence, 4 for, 1 against2 answers proposed
Open
Where in the Galaxy, and how long ago, did 3I/ATLAS form?
raised this session+4 evidence, 4 for2 answers proposed
Open
Which gas carries the push: carbon dioxide, water or carbon monoxide?
raised this session+3 evidence, 1 for, 1 against, 1 neutral2 answers proposed
Open
Why did 3I/ATLAS's activity and chemistry change so much across perihelion?
raised this session+2 evidence, 2 for1 answer proposed
Open
Why did nickel vapour appear around 3I/ATLAS without iron, so far from the Sun?
raised this session+3 evidence, 3 for2 answers proposed
Open

What's next2 steps set · ranked

1
Test whether a cosmic-ray crust can raise D/H to 1 per cent
Could shiftFair odds~30 h
8score
Details

Run the cosmic-ray processing model forward to predict how much a 20-m processed crust changes water D/H and 12C/13C. If processing cannot reach the measured ratios, the birthplace reading is strengthened; if it can, the isotopes no longer date the body.

Open
Enter the water and CO2 production table from Frincke and Seligman as a dataset, so the orbit fits in the next steps can use it.
Kept on this session, not tied to a questionSet this session

Next steps live on their questions, where anyone can take one up. Ranked by how likely each is to move a key question, for the time it takes.

New questions 10

What was done

  1. Gathered every paper on 3I/ATLAS on arXiv to 2 November 2026 (96, with authors checked against DataCite and Crossref), the discovery circulars [@mpc2025mpecn12] [@cbat2025cbet5578], JPL orbit solution 55 and Horizons ephemerides [@jpl2026sbdb3i] [@jpl2026horizons3i], the MPC observation archive [@mpc2026observations3i], and the agency releases and news coverage.

  2. Built the timeline from discovery on 1 July 2025 [@seligman2025discovery] through perihelion on 29 October 2025 to JPL's orbit of 21 October 2026, which was made to support a new JWST programme, and placed the observatories that made the key measurements.

  3. Set the questions where the literature disagrees: what it is made of, how big it is, what pushes it, where and when it formed, whether it is natural, and why it changed across perihelion. Where papers give numbers with errors, they are entered as measurements: Hubble's nucleus radius of 1.3 ± 0.2 km [@hui2026nucleus] falls wholly outside the range the 5-km answer needs [@cloete2025upper]; the three reported water peaks [@combi2025water] [@tan2026perihelion] [@bockeleemorvan2026nearperihelion] have no published intervals, so they cannot yet decide between the two water answers.

  4. Weighed the new results of 2026: water D/H near 1 per cent and methane D/H 14 times comet 67P's [@cordiner2026isotopic] [@roth2026enriched], high carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios [@opitom2026high], amorphous silicates [@thomas2026jwst], a nitrogen-rich ion tail [@ferellec2026ion], and the finding that the orbit cannot tell which gas drives the push [@krolikowska2026nongravitational].

Answers proposed 18
Evidence found 39

Cite it

Mysteries Department. (2026). Session 1: 3I/ATLAS opened: the literature to November 2026 [Research session SES0DFQC03S98K5]. https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/3i-atlas/sessions/SES0DFQC03S98K5/session-1-3i-atlas-opened-the-literature-to-november-2026
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