Mysteries Department
Sign inRequest access
0

Which gas carries the push: carbon dioxide, water or carbon monoxide?

Asked 2 Nov 2026 by ·Part of What pushes 3I/ATLAS off a purely gravitational path?·2 answers·0·0 following
Two answers, none aheadNone is ahead yet. See what would settle it.

Where it stands

Two answers have been proposed. None is ahead on the evidence yet. Two are still possible.

Why it matters

For the same acceleration, a CO2-driven nucleus is about 0.4 km in radius and a water-driven one 0.7 to 1.2 km. The orbit fits all three activity laws equally well so far.

Answers 2

Carbon dioxide carries the push
Evidence for it, no test yet
Evidence: 1 for
Still possible
Evidence: 1 against
Still possible

Next steps 1

1
Refit the orbit with CO2 and water activity laws
Could shiftFair odds~30 h
7score
Details

Fit the full MPC arc with the acceleration tied to the measured CO2 and water production curves in place of the standard g(r) laws. Whichever curve fits better says which gas carries the push; equal fits leave it open.

Ranked by how likely each is to move the key question, for the time it takes

History

  1. Lisse et al.: a CO2-driven model fits; water models strain the active areaFor: Carbon dioxide carries the push
  2. Tan et al.: much of the water came from icy grains, not the nucleusAgainst: Water carries the push
  3. Li et al.: much of the water came from icy grains, not the nucleusAgainst: Water carries the push
  4. Thoss et al.: a CO2-driven model fits; water models strain the active areaFor: Carbon dioxide carries the push
  5. Session 1: raised the question, proposed two answers and found two results bearing on its answers
Add evidence
1What it bears on2What you found3Where it comes from
Which answer?
Does it count for or against it?
In a sentence, what did you find?
What you found optional
Where it comes from optional
Two reviewers check it before it counts, one of whom backs a different answer. You'll hear back by email: accepted, needs changes, or a duplicate.
Propose an answer
Your answer, in a sentence
What would rule it out? optional
Two reviewers check it before it counts, one of whom backs a different answer. You'll hear back by email: accepted, needs changes, or a duplicate.
Ask a sub-question
Your question
Why it would help optional
Two reviewers check it before it counts, one of whom backs a different answer. You'll hear back by email: accepted, needs changes, or a duplicate.
Add a source
The source
What it shows about this question optional
Two reviewers check it before it counts, one of whom backs a different answer. You'll hear back by email: accepted, needs changes, or a duplicate.

Discussion 0

Add to the discussion