3I/ATLASEvidence
Evidence · 3I/ATLAS
A CO2-driven model fits; water models strain the active area
With CO2 as the driver, Thoss and colleagues find a 0.42-km radius and 1.6 × 10^11 kg mass; water-driven versions need an active area that conflicts with the observations, partly because much water sublimes in the coma.
What it means
Openunchanged
Part of itWhich gas carries the push: carbon dioxide, water or carbon monoxide?
2 answers, none ahead yet
Openunchanged
Still possiblewas No evidence yet
What it implies
- CO2 can carry the push with a plausible active area.For: Which gas carries the push: carbon dioxide, water or carbon monoxide?
- Would put the nucleus below the Hubble size unless the albedo is high.For: How big is the nucleus of 3I/ATLAS?
Next steps 1
1
Refit the orbit with CO2 and water activity laws
Could shiftFair odds~30 h
7score
Details
Fit the full MPC arc with the acceleration tied to the measured CO2 and water production curves in place of the standard g(r) laws. Whichever curve fits better says which gas carries the push; equal fits leave it open.
Ranked by how likely each is to move the key question, for the time it takes
Sources 2
SRC
Cite it
Mysteries Department. (2026). A CO2-driven model fits; water models strain the active area [Evidence EVD0DFQ4MJGW244]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DFQ4MJGW244
@misc{mysteriesdept_evd0dfq4mjgw244,
title = {A CO2-driven model fits; water models strain the active area},
author = {{Mysteries Department}},
year = {2026},
note = {Evidence, catalog key EVD0DFQ4MJGW244},
url = {https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DFQ4MJGW244}
}