Evidence · 3I/ATLAS

The orbit fits water, CO2 and CO laws equally well

Królikowska, Spada and Dones find the astrometry fits water-type, volatile and extreme-volatile activity laws equally well, so the orbit alone cannot name the gas.

Supported0

What it means

Key questionWhat pushes 3I/ATLAS off a purely gravitational path?

No answer ahead yet

Openunchanged

Part of itWhich gas carries the push: carbon dioxide, water or carbon monoxide?

2 answers, none ahead yet

Openunchanged

Answer this evidence bears onWater carries the push

Bears onnone for, 1 against

Still possibleunchanged

What it implies

Deciding needs the measured production curves, not standard laws.For: Which gas carries the push: carbon dioxide, water or carbon monoxide?

Next steps 1

Refit the orbit with CO2 and water activity laws

Could shiftFair odds~30 h

On: Which gas carries the push: carbon dioxide, water or carbon monoxide?

7score

Details

Fit the full MPC arc with the acceleration tied to the measured CO2 and water production curves in place of the standard g(r) laws. Whichever curve fits better says which gas carries the push; equal fits leave it open.

Ranked by how likely each is to move the key question, for the time it takes

Sources 1

Nongravitational Motion of 3I/ATLAS Far from the Sun: Robust Detection, Weak Constraints on the Activity Law

Królikowska et al. 2026

SRC

Cite it

Mysteries Department. (2026). The orbit fits water, CO2 and CO laws equally well [Evidence EVD0DFQ4N6BWVYY]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DFQ4N6BWVYY

@misc{mysteriesdept_evd0dfq4n6bwvyy,
  title     = {The orbit fits water, CO2 and CO laws equally well},
  author    = {{Mysteries Department}},
  year      = {2026},
  note      = {Evidence, catalog key EVD0DFQ4N6BWVYY},
  url       = {https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DFQ4N6BWVYY}
}