Session 1: The missing-scientists list researched, case by case, with a base-rate test

What it concluded

• No official body has found a link between any two cases. Where causes are known they are individual; several people on the list were not scientists; and ordinary death and missing-person rates for the workforces involved predict far more such cases than the list holds. McCasland, Reza, Chavez and Garcia are still missing, Casias's death is undetermined, and the FBI's promised report and any Oversight findings were unpublished as of 28 October 2026.

What it left open

• Publication of the FBI's final report on its review (promised 28 April 2026).
• Any findings from the House Oversight inquiry opened 20 April 2026.
• Whether McCasland, Reza, Chavez or Garcia is found.
• The OMI's final ruling and state police findings on Melissa Casias.
• The Grillmair murder trial.
• A published cause for Joshua LeBlanc's crash.
• Any release of Grusch's IG submissions or UAP records naming a programme or a person on the list.
• Sheriff's office releases and any official search-area map, not readable during this session.

Questions raised 5

Answers proposed 16

Evidence found 6

Runs 1

Methods used 1

Datasets used 1

Sources consulted 5

Cite it

Mysteries Department. (2026). Session 1: The missing-scientists list researched, case by case, with a base-rate test [Research session SES0DCRDRNP70MF]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/SES0DCRDRNP70MF

@misc{mysteriesdept_ses0dcrdrnp70mf,
  title     = {Session 1: The missing-scientists list researched, case by case, with a base-rate test},
  author    = {{Mysteries Department}},
  year      = {2026},
  note      = {Research session, catalog key SES0DCRDRNP70MF},
  url       = {https://mysteriesdept.com/r/SES0DCRDRNP70MF}
}