Run · America's missing scientists, 2021–2026

Base-rate model run on the 2024 rates, two workforce sizes, 27 July 2021 to 27 February 2026

Deterministic; no randomness, so the seed is unused. Inputs file sha256 76cd8bcbdc8412abfd49ffa10e8d2142b74f61c2c04b8f570f0d0f4d67c6fc21. The 15 listed cases include several people who were not in a cleared aerospace or nuclear job, which makes the comparison generous to the connection reading.

The list falls one to two orders of magnitude below the ordinary expectation for either workforce (expected homicides 10 to 95 times the listed 2; expected violent or accidental deaths 18 to 168 times the listed 15 cases), so its size gives no evidence of excess deaths or disappearances. The test cannot rule out a small targeted cause hidden inside the ordinary toll.{'broad': {'total': 2518.2, 'suicide': 462.5, 'homicide': 189.5, 'open_missing_records': 178.2, 'unintentional_injury': 1866.2, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 482.3}, 'narrow': {'total': 266.9, 'suicide': 49, 'homicide': 20.1, 'open_missing_records': 18.9, 'unintentional_injury': 197.8, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 51.1}}0

Result

Run	Measured	Result	Against	Decision	Date
Run	Expected homicides over the window, and expected homicides, suicides and accidental deaths combined, against the counts on the list	{'broad': {'total': 2518.2, 'suicide': 462.5, 'homicide': 189.5, 'open_missing_records': 178.2, 'unintentional_injury': 1866.2, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 482.3}, 'narrow': {'total': 266.9, 'suicide': 49, 'homicide': 20.1, 'open_missing_records': 18.9, 'unintentional_injury': 197.8, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 51.1}}	list_cases 15 · list_homicides 2 · list_missing_at_2026_10_28 4	The list falls one to two orders of magnitude below the ordinary expectation for either workforce (expected homicides 10 to 95 times the listed 2; expected violent or accidental deaths 18 to 168 times the listed 15 cases), so its size gives no evidence of excess deaths or disappearances. The test cannot rule out a small targeted cause hidden inside the ordinary toll.

What it used and found

Expected deaths and disappearances in a cleared workforce (base-rate model)

Method

MTH

Base-rate inputs for the cleared aerospace and nuclear workforce

Dataset

DAT

No common cause: separate cases gathered after the fact from a large workforce

Answer it tests

ANS

The site's base-rate model expects 10 to 95 times as many homicides in the workforce as the list holds

Evidence it produced

EVD

Parameters

window = ['2021-07-27', '2026-02-27'], us_adults_2024 = 266978268, workforce_broad = 700000, suicide_per_100k = 14.4, workforce_narrow = 74191, homicide_per_100k = 5.9, ncic_adult_entries_2024 = 183952, ncic_active_adult_2024_12_31 = 67954, suicide_range_25_64_per_100k = [7.1, 29.6], unintentional_injury_per_100k = 58.1

Cite it

Mysteries Department. (2026). Base-rate model run on the 2024 rates, two workforce sizes, 27 July 2021 to 27 February 2026 [Run RUN0DCQT6K8QMAE]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/RUN0DCQT6K8QMAE

@misc{mysteriesdept_run0dcqt6k8qmae,
  title     = {Base-rate model run on the 2024 rates, two workforce sizes, 27 July 2021 to 27 February 2026},
  author    = {{Mysteries Department}},
  year      = {2026},
  note      = {Run, catalog key RUN0DCQT6K8QMAE},
  url       = {https://mysteriesdept.com/r/RUN0DCQT6K8QMAE}
}