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MYS0DCQBTNA3C0F·Mystery · disappearance

America's missing scientists, 2021–2026

In the spring of 2026 a list of Americans who had died or gone missing since 2021 moved from YouTube and Substack to the Daily Mail, the New York Post and Fox News, and then to Congress, the White House and the FBI⁠[1]. Its people had worked, or were said to have worked, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the Los Alamos laboratory, MIT, Caltech, NASA's Marshall centre and the nuclear weapons complex, or on research described as exotic; the claim was that so many deaths and disappearances in so few years could not be chance⁠[2]⁠[3].

The case that made the list news was that of William Neil McCasland, a retired Air Force major general who had commanded the Air Force Research Laboratory and advised the musician Tom DeLonge on UFO matters. He walked out of his home in the Albuquerque foothills on the morning of 27 February 2026, leaving his phone and glasses, and has not been found⁠[4]⁠[5]⁠[6]. On 17 April the White House said it would review all the cases together; on 20 April the House Oversight Committee wrote to four agencies; on 21 April the FBI said it was "spearheading" the search for connections⁠[7]⁠[8]⁠[9].

What the record shows, as of 28 October 2026, is a set of separate cases. Two scientists were killed: the FBI found that Loureiro's killer, a former classmate, acted alone, and the man charged with Grillmair's murder is one he had reported for trespassing⁠[10]⁠[11]. Others died of illness, by accident, or in ways that officials have not finished ruling on; four are still missing; several were never scientists⁠[2]⁠[9]. No official body has published a link between any two of them, and the number of such deaths is far below what ordinary death rates predict for the workforces involved⁠[12]⁠[13]. Of the 5 questions on this site, 0 are answered.

Key questionsset by the editors

All 5 questions

What is known

The list is not an official one. It was assembled online and in the press from early 2026, grew from five names in a Daily Mail article of 22 March to ten in the House Oversight Committee's letters of 20 April and thirteen in late April, and has been added to and pruned since⁠[3]⁠[14]⁠[15]⁠[16]. The fifteen cases most often cited are below, oldest first, with what was reported about each person's work and what officials have found. They take in a physicist who died at 79, a 29-year-old NASA engineer, an MIT professor killed by a former classmate, an administrative assistant, a property custodian and a retired general⁠[9]⁠[2].

  • Ning Li, physicist, formerly of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, whose gravity research had Defense Department funding in 2001. Died in Huntsville, aged 79, on 27 July 2021. Her obituary says she died peacefully; her son said she never went missing and could not work after a road accident in 2014⁠[17]⁠[18].
  • Amy Eskridge, co-founder of the Institute for Exotic Science in Huntsville. Died in Huntsville, aged 34, on 11 June 2022. Reported as a suicide; few official details have been released⁠[19].
  • Michael David Hicks, planetary scientist at JPL for nearly 25 years, to 2022. Died, aged 59, on 30 July 2023. Cause not made public; his daughter said he had known medical issues⁠[2].
  • Matthew James Sullivan, former Air Force intelligence officer. Died in Falls Church, Virginia, aged 39, on 12 May 2024. The Virginia medical examiner ruled the death accidental⁠[15]⁠[20].
  • Frank Maiwald, JPL researcher. Died in Los Angeles, aged 61, on 4 July 2024. Cause not made public⁠[15].
  • Anthony Chavez, retired from the Los Alamos laboratory, where CNN reported he was a construction foreman. Reported missing from Los Alamos, aged 78, on 8 May 2025. Still missing; police found no sign of foul play and marked the case inactive on 6 October 2025⁠[2]⁠[21]⁠[22].
  • Monica Reza, aerospace materials engineer, co-developer of the Mondaloy rocket-engine alloy at Rocketdyne. Last seen hiking near Mount Waterman in the Angeles National Forest, aged 60, on 22 June 2025. Still missing⁠[23]⁠[24].
  • Melissa Casias, administrative assistant at the Los Alamos laboratory. Went missing in Taos County, aged 53, on 26 June 2025; a hiker found her remains in Carson National Forest on 28 May 2026. The Office of the Medical Investigator classified the manner of death as undetermined; the state police investigation is open⁠[9]⁠[25]⁠[26].
  • Joshua LeBlanc, electrical engineer on nuclear propulsion at NASA's Marshall centre. Died in a single-car crash in north Alabama, aged 29, on 22 July 2025, hours after his family reported him missing. No official ruling has been published⁠[27].
  • Steven Garcia, property custodian for the Kansas City National Security Campus's Albuquerque operations. Went missing from south-west Albuquerque, aged 48, on 28 August 2025. Still missing; police reported no new developments in April 2026⁠[28].
  • Jason Thomas, chemical biology researcher at Novartis. Reported missing in Wakefield, Massachusetts, aged 45, on 13 December 2025; his body was recovered from Lake Quannapowitt on 17 March 2026. The Middlesex District Attorney said no foul play was suspected⁠[15]⁠[29].
  • Nuno Loureiro, MIT professor and director of its Plasma Science and Fusion Center. Shot at his home in Brookline, Massachusetts, aged 47, on 15 December 2025, by a former classmate who had attacked Brown University two days earlier. The FBI found that the gunman acted alone and that the attacks had no nexus to terrorism⁠[15]⁠[10].
  • Carl Grillmair, Caltech astrophysicist. Shot at his home in Llano, Los Angeles County, aged 67, on 16 February 2026. A man he had reported for trespassing in December is charged with his murder and has pleaded not guilty⁠[11]⁠[30].
  • William Neil McCasland, retired Air Force major general who commanded the Air Force Research Laboratory from 2011 until he retired in 2013. Last seen at home in the Albuquerque foothills, aged 68, on 27 February 2026. Still missing⁠[4]⁠[5]⁠[31].
  • Nick Pope, former UK Ministry of Defence official who once investigated UFO reports. Died at home in Tucson, Arizona, aged 60, on 6 April 2026, of cancer, as his wife announced⁠[32].

The author David Wilcock, who died in Colorado on 20 April 2026, is sometimes added; his family said he took his own life⁠[33]. Anyone struggling can call or text 988 in the US, at any hour⁠[34].

The links drawn between these people are of four kinds: an employer or place (JPL and Caltech in Pasadena, the Los Alamos laboratory, NASA's Marshall centre in Huntsville, the nuclear weapons complex), a security clearance, research called exotic (Li's gravity work, Eskridge's institute), and McCasland's past command of the Air Force Research Laboratory and his advice to the musician Tom DeLonge on UFO matters⁠[2]⁠[6]. Who held clearances, and of what kind, is mostly unreported; Casias's niece said she did not have a high-level one, and the sheriff's office said McCasland held a standard retiree clearance⁠[9]⁠[35].

Photograph: JPL from the air
Photograph: JPL from the airKevin Gill (Flickr), 2015. CC BY 2.0Artifact

McCasland's case is the centre of the story. On the morning of 27 February 2026 a repairman spoke with him at his home; his wife left for a medical appointment at about 11 a.m., and when she came back at 12:04 he was gone, leaving his phone, prescription glasses and wearable devices. His wallet and a red backpack were not in the house. The sheriff's office issued a Silver Alert that afternoon⁠[4]⁠[36]. His wife told the 911 dispatcher she had "some indication that he planned not to be found"⁠[37]. In public she has rejected the idea that he was taken for what he knew: he had "access to some highly classified programs" in the Air Force, but he retired almost thirteen years ago, and his consulting for DeLonge was unpaid and for fiction and media projects⁠[6]. The sheriff's office said in April that it had found no evidence connecting the disappearance to his classified work, and in August that it had no updates to release⁠[38]⁠[12]. Anyone with information can call the Bernalillo County Sheriff's Office Missing Person Unit on 505-468-7070, or text "BCSO" and the tip to 847411⁠[4].

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Timeline

Timeline
Squeezed where little happened. Each mark is a published claim, by how it stands:Accepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedLikely: Best supported so far, not yet confirmedMost likelyStill possible: Not tested enough to call either wayStill possibleDisputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedRuled out: The evidence contradicts itRuled out
What happenedPublished claims19821988200120132016201920212023202420252026Deaths of British defence scientists, 1982–1988, 1982Marconi deathsEleven microbiologists die, 2001–2002, 2001MicrobiologistsMcCasland retires from the Air Force, 2013McCasland retiresDeLonge's email naming McCasland is made public, 2016DeLonge emailThe Army signs CRADA 19-15 with To The Stars Academy, 2019Army–TTSA dealNing Li dies in Huntsville, 2021Li diesAmy Eskridge dies in Huntsville, 2022Eskridge diesDavid Grusch testifies to Congress, 2023Grusch testifiesMichael David Hicks dies, 2023Hicks diesThe Inspector General withholds Grusch's submissions, 2024IG withholdsAARO's historical review finds no verifiable evidence, 2024Matthew Sullivan dies in Falls Church, 2024Frank Maiwald dies in Los Angeles, 2024Maiwald diesAnthony Chavez reported missing in Los Alamos, 2025Monica Reza last seen near Mount Waterman, 2025Reza missingMelissa Casias goes missing in Taos County, 2025Casias missingJoshua LeBlanc dies in a crash, 2025LeBlanc diesSteven Garcia goes missing in Albuquerque, 2025Los Alamos police mark the Chavez case inactive, 2025Chavez inactiveJason Thomas reported missing in Wakefield, 2025Nuno Loureiro killed in Brookline, 2025Dark Journalist proposes a pattern, 2026Carl Grillmair killed in Llano, 2026Grillmair killedJessica Reed Kraus links Loureiro and Grillmair, 2026KrausNeil McCasland disappears from his Albuquerque home, 2026Jason Thomas's body recovered from Lake Quannapowitt, 2026Thomas foundThe Daily Mail names a "chilling pattern", 2026Burlison asks for FBI involvement, 2026Nick Pope dies in Tucson, 2026Pope diesThe White House announces a review of all the cases, 2026The House Oversight Committee writes to four agencies, 2026The FBI says it is spearheading a search for connections, 2026The FBI finds Loureiro's killer acted alone, 2026Trump: not much of a connection, 2026A hiker finds Melissa Casias's remains, 2026The sheriff's office corrects reports about McCasland, 2026The medical investigator classifies Casias's death as undetermined, 2026McCasland still missing after seven months, 2026Still missingMinistry of Defence, 1988: The deaths of more than twenty British defence workers in 1982–88 were a coincidence, not a patternDefence 1988American Society for Microbiology, 2002: Eleven microbiologists' deaths in five months are what chance predicts among some 20,000 US academic microbiologistsMicrobiology 2002Tom DeLonge, 2016: McCasland ran the Wright-Patterson laboratory where the Roswell wreckage was takenTom DeLonge 2016Tom DeLonge, 2016: McCasland helped assemble DeLonge's advisory teamTom DeLonge 2016David Grusch, 2023: The US runs a programme to retrieve and reverse-engineer craft of non-human originDavid Grusch 2023Jack Sarfatti, as reported, 2023: Ning Li went back to ChinaSarfatti & reported 2023Dark Journalist (YouTube), 2026: Loureiro's killing belongs to a pattern of scientists' deaths(YouTube) 2026Jessica Reed Kraus, 2026: The killings of Loureiro and Grillmair are linkedJessica Reed Kraus 2026McCasland's wife, 2026: He was not taken for what he knew: his access ended when he retired thirteen years ago, and his UFO advice was unpaidMcCasland's wife 2026BroBible (unattributed), 2026: Reza developed a rocket alloy "as part of a U.S. government project overseen by General McCasland"(unattributed) 2026New York Post (Shane Galvin), 2026: Reza had a "close professional connection" with McCasland on materials for reusable space vehicles and weaponsDaily Mail, 2026: The deaths and disappearances form "a chilling pattern"Ross Coulthart (NewsNation), 2026: Some of the cases "do raise suspicions and warrant further investigation"Rep. Tim Burchett, 2026: "There's just too many of them disappearing"McCasland's wife, in the 911 call, 2026: She had "some indication that he planned not to be found"wife & call 2026New York Post (Ross O'Keefe), 2026: JPL's Maiwald and Hicks were linked to a "secret program"Daily Mail (Chris Melore); BroBible, 2026: Steven Garcia was a "missing nuclear official" in a "very high-level, overseeing position"Bernalillo County Sheriff's Office, 2026: No evidence connects McCasland's disappearance to his classified workMick West, 2026: Ordinary mortality explains the list: about 4,000 deaths in 22 months among 700,000 cleared workersRep. Eric Burlison, 2026: Matthew Sullivan's death was a suspicious suicidePresident Trump, 2026: "I hope it's random, but we're going to know in the next week and a half"Fox News; online posts, 2026: Amy Eskridge was killed for her researchTimcast IRL, 2026: Eleven UFO scientists are missingRichard Hanania, 2026: The "disappearing scientists" story is hysteria built on ordinary deathsRep. James Comer, 2026: "It's very unlikely that this is a coincidence"Rep. Eric Burlison, 2026: The cases have "all the hallmarks of a foreign operation"FBI, 2026: The FBI is "spearheading the effort to look for connections"FBI 2026NASA, 2026: "Nothing related to NASA indicates a national security threat"Early posts and reports, 2026: Melissa Casias was a Los Alamos scientistMichael Shermer, 2026: The list is a case of finding "meaningful patterns in random noise"Kash Patel, FBI director, 2026: "They're all state cases", and some of the people were not scientistsRep. Eric Burlison, 2026: LeBlanc's death in a crash after he was reported missing "is not normal"FBI and US Attorney, Boston, 2026: Loureiro's killer acted alone, and the attacks had no nexus to terrorismPresident Trump, 2026: "So far, we're finding that there's not much of a connection"BroBible, from Law&Crime bodycam footage, 2026: McCasland met a "shadowy Pentagon unit" before he disappearedDaily Mail; BroBible, 2026: McCasland was trying to leave Pentagon secret research programmes when he disappearedOffice of the Medical Investigator, New Mexico, 2026: The manner of Melissa Casias's death is undeterminedDavid Grusch, 2026: McCasland's disappearance is concerning

Searchers looked for McCasland with drones, helicopters, dogs and ground teams in the Sandia foothills he walked in, including Elena Gallegos Open Space and the Domingo Baca trail, canvassed about 700 homes for video, flew infrared sorties that the warm winter made hard to read, and searched his second home in Pagosa Springs, Colorado⁠[4]⁠[36]. A US Air Force sweatshirt found about 1.5 miles from his house on 7 March was not confirmed as his⁠[36]. By mid-March the sheriff said there had been "no confirmed sightings", and a lieutenant said that if he had gone into the mountains his chances of survival were "very low"⁠[4]. The FBI's Albuquerque office has helped with interviews, analysis and surveillance, and has twice refused to release its records under the Freedom of Information Act⁠[4]⁠[12]. As of early October 2026, more than seven months on, he had not been found⁠[12]. No official map of the search areas has been published in any source found for this article, so the map on this page marks towns, parks and forests only.

Photograph: Elena Gallegos Open Space
Photograph: Elena Gallegos Open SpaceBrandonStephenson (Flickr), 2018. Public domainArtifact
Photograph: Mount Waterman from the east
Photograph: Mount Waterman from the eastEeekster (Wikimedia Commons), 2011. CC BY-SA 3.0Artifact

The other searches were local and are mostly over. Los Alamos police searched trails and homes for Chavez, checked hospitals, phone records and a reported sighting on a Dallas flight, and marked the case inactive on 6 October 2025⁠[22]. The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department searched for Reza around Mount Waterman from the air and the ground for a week before handing the case to its Missing Persons Unit on 29 June 2025⁠[23]⁠[39]. Albuquerque police reported no new developments on Garcia in April 2026⁠[28]. Casias was found by a hiker eleven months after she went missing⁠[25].

The federal and congressional reviews came later and looked for connections, not people. On 20 April 2026 House Oversight Committee chairman James Comer and subcommittee chairman Eric Burlison wrote to the Energy Secretary, the Secretary of War, the FBI director and the NASA administrator about what they called "unconfirmed public reporting", asking for staff briefings by 27 April⁠[8]⁠[14]. On 21 April the FBI said it was "spearheading the effort to look for connections into the missing and deceased scientists", and NNSA said it was "looking into the matter"⁠[9]. On 28 April FBI director Kash Patel said "They're all state cases", that some of the people were not scientists, and that a final report would come "in short order"⁠[40]. The only federal finding published is the FBI's on the Brown University and Brookline shootings, on 29 April: the gunman acted alone and his victims were "symbolic in nature"⁠[10]. No FBI report on the wider review, and no findings from the Oversight inquiry, had been made public by 28 October 2026 in any source found for this article.

How the story spread

CNN traced the story's path. In January 2026 the YouTube channel Dark Journalist streamed three hours on Loureiro's death and proposed a pattern; on 20 February the Substack writer Jessica Reed Kraus wrote about Loureiro and Grillmair, on 2 March about McCasland, and on 11 March an Instagram post of hers on the two killings went viral⁠[1]. On 22 March the Daily Mail began a series on what it called "a chilling pattern", naming five people, and NewsNation's Ross Coulthart linked McCasland to Reza⁠[3]⁠[1]. A claim that Reza had worked on a rocket alloy "as part of a U.S. government project overseen by General McCasland" circulated without a named source from at least 18 March; the New York Post reported a "close professional connection" between them on 21 March⁠[41]⁠[14].

Fox News covered McCasland on 23 March; Rep. Tim Burchett told Benny Johnson on 24 March that "there's just too many of them disappearing"; the New York Post added names from 27 March⁠[1]. Rep. Burlison said on 30 March that he had "already requested FBI involvement"⁠[42]. Fox's Will Cain Show had taken up the cases by 7 April, and Joe Rogan discussed them on 9 April⁠[43]⁠[1]. On 15 April Fox's Peter Doocy asked the press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, who said she had not yet spoken to the agencies; on 16 April President Trump said "I hope it's random, but we're going to know in the next week and a half"; on 17 April Leavitt announced that the White House and the FBI would "holistically review all of the cases together"⁠[7]⁠[3]. Podcasts went further: on 18 April Timcast IRL titled an episode "The Eskridge conspiracy, 11 UFO scientists missing"⁠[44].

The Oversight letters of 20 April, the first page of the one to the FBI shown here, rest on press reports: their footnotes cite the Daily Mail of 11 April, the New York Post of 18 and 21 March and 9 April, and The Hill of 16 April⁠[14]. Comer said it was "very unlikely that this is a coincidence" and Burlison that the cases had "all the hallmarks of a foreign operation"⁠[45]. Burlison added Sullivan, Li and, on 28 April, LeBlanc⁠[15]⁠[46]. On 30 April Trump told Doocy that "so far, we're finding that there's not much of a connection"⁠[1]. Later claims, that McCasland had met a "shadowy Pentagon unit" the evening before he vanished and that he had been trying to leave secret research programmes, rested on a witness's account of a dinner and on second-hand reports, and the sheriff's office corrected the second in June⁠[47]⁠[48]⁠[35].

Letter to FBI Director Kash Patel, 20 April 2026: page 1
Letter to FBI Director Kash Patel, 20 April 2026: page 1House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, 2026. Public domainArtifact

The explanations

The case for a connection, as those who make it put it, rests on clustering, access and one man. Four of the missing are from New Mexico, home to the Los Alamos and Sandia laboratories and Kirtland Air Force Base; four of the dead or missing worked, or were said to have worked, at or with JPL and Caltech in Pasadena; three of the dead lived and worked in Huntsville, home of NASA's Marshall centre⁠[2]⁠[28]⁠[15]. Several of the missing left behind phones, keys or wallets⁠[15]. McCasland ran the Air Force Research Laboratory, earlier directed special programmes for the Pentagon's acquisition chief, and in 2016 was described by DeLonge as the man who had led the Wright-Patterson laboratory where, DeLonge wrote, the Roswell wreckage went, and who "helped assemble my advisory team"⁠[5]⁠[49]. Reza's alloy was developed with Air Force Research Laboratory cost-sharing from 1999⁠[24], and the Oversight letters repeated press reports of a "close professional connection" between the two⁠[14]. Coulthart has said that some individual cases "do raise suspicions and warrant further investigation"⁠[1], and David Grusch, who testified in 2023 that the US runs a retrieval and reverse-engineering programme for non-human craft, called McCasland's disappearance concerning⁠[50]⁠[12].

Each strand weakens on inspection. No police force, sheriff, medical examiner or federal agency has found a link between any two cases⁠[2]⁠[38]⁠[35]. Where a cause is known it is particular to the person: Loureiro's killer was a former classmate who acted alone, Grillmair's accused killer was a man he had reported for trespassing, Thomas's death involved no foul play, Sullivan's was ruled accidental, Li's followed years of illness, and Pope died of cancer⁠[10]⁠[11]⁠[29]⁠[20]⁠[18]⁠[32]. Several people on the list were not scientists, as Patel himself said: an administrative assistant, a property custodian, a retired construction foreman, an intelligence officer and a general who retired in 2013⁠[9]⁠[40]⁠[51]. The Reza link rests on an unattributed post; the Air Force work on her alloy began in 1999, when McCasland was chief engineer of the GPS programme in Los Angeles, and Los Angeles magazine found no confirmed reporting that she ever worked under him⁠[24]⁠[5]⁠[52].

DODOIG-2024-000205 letter: page 1
DODOIG-2024-000205 letter: page 1Department of Defense, Office of Inspector General, 2024. Public domainArtifact

The UFO strand has its own record. Grusch's evidence was given to the Defense Department's Inspector General, which in 2024 withheld all 25 pages of his submissions from The Black Vault under FOIA case DODOIG-2024-000205⁠[53]. The Pentagon's 2024 historical review found no verifiable evidence of the programme he described⁠[54]. What is on the public record of DeLonge's dealings with government is a 2019 Army agreement to test materials his company supplied, released under FOIA, which names no one on the list⁠[55]⁠[56].

The base rate is the strongest argument against a pattern. Mick West estimated that some 700,000 Americans hold Top Secret clearances in aerospace and nuclear work, and that ordinary mortality would kill about 4,000 of them in 22 months, including some 70 by homicide and 180 by suicide⁠[13]. The model on this page, built from 2024 CDC rates and 2024 FBI missing-person figures, gives about 190 homicides, 460 suicides and 1,870 accidental deaths over the four and a half years the list spans, and about 480 adult missing-person reports a year, for a workforce of that size; for a narrow workforce of only NNSA and NASA staff, about 74,000 people, it still gives about 20 homicides and 50 missing-person reports a year⁠[57]⁠[58]⁠[59]⁠[60]⁠[61]⁠[62]⁠[63]. The list holds two homicides and four people missing. A list drawn after the fact from such a population, and extended by adding new names as they come to notice, will always look like a cluster; Michael Shermer calls it finding "meaningful patterns in random noise"⁠[64].

The pattern has been seen before. Between 1982 and 1988 more than twenty British defence scientists and engineers, most of them at GEC-Marconi, died by suicide, accident and other causes; MPs called for an inquiry and the Ministry of Defence called the deaths a coincidence⁠[65]. One of them, first ruled a suicide, was shown in 2021 by DNA evidence to have been murdered by an unconnected offender⁠[66]. Between November 2001 and March 2002 eleven microbiologists died around the world; each death had its own cause, and the American Society for Microbiology pointed out that the United States alone had some 20,000 academic microbiologists⁠[67].

Published claims

Published claims and their status
YearWhoClaimedStatusReason
1988Ministry of Defence⁠[65]The deaths of more than twenty British defence workers in 1982–88 were a coincidence, not a patternAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedNo link between the deaths was established; one, first ruled a suicide, was shown in 2021 to be a murder by an unconnected offender⁠[65]⁠[66].
2002American Society for Microbiology⁠[67]Eleven microbiologists' deaths in five months are what chance predicts among some 20,000 US academic microbiologistsAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedEach death had its own cause, and none was connected to another⁠[67].
2016Tom DeLonge⁠[49]McCasland ran the Wright-Patterson laboratory where the Roswell wreckage was takenDisputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedHe commanded the Air Force Research Laboratory at Wright-Patterson in 2011–13; the Pentagon's 2024 review found no verifiable evidence that crash material was recovered or reverse-engineered⁠[5]⁠[54].
2016Tom DeLonge⁠[49]McCasland helped assemble DeLonge's advisory teamAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedHis wife confirmed that he advised DeLonge, unpaid, on fiction and media projects⁠[6].
2023David Grusch⁠[50]The US runs a programme to retrieve and reverse-engineer craft of non-human originDisputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedThe Inspector General withheld his submissions in full, and AARO found no verifiable evidence of such a programme⁠[53]⁠[54].
2023Jack Sarfatti, as reported⁠[18]Ning Li went back to ChinaRuled out: The evidence contradicts itRuled outHer son said she never went to China and never defected; she died in Huntsville in 2021⁠[18]⁠[17].
2026Dark Journalist (YouTube)⁠[1]Loureiro's killing belongs to a pattern of scientists' deathsRuled out: The evidence contradicts itRuled outThe FBI found his killer acted alone and his victims were "symbolic in nature"⁠[10].
2026Jessica Reed Kraus⁠[1]The killings of Loureiro and Grillmair are linkedRuled out: The evidence contradicts itRuled outLoureiro's killer acted alone, and the man charged with Grillmair's murder is one he had reported for trespassing⁠[10]⁠[11].
2026McCasland's wife⁠[6]He was not taken for what he knew: his access ended when he retired thirteen years ago, and his UFO advice was unpaidAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedThe sheriff's office found no evidence tying the disappearance to his classified work and said he held a standard retiree clearance⁠[38]⁠[35].
2026BroBible (unattributed)⁠[41]Reza developed a rocket alloy "as part of a U.S. government project overseen by General McCasland"Disputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedNo source was given. Air Force cost-sharing on the alloy began in 1999, when McCasland was chief engineer of the GPS programme, and Los Angeles magazine found no confirmed reporting that she worked under him⁠[24]⁠[5]⁠[52].
2026New York Post (Shane Galvin)⁠[14]Reza had a "close professional connection" with McCasland on materials for reusable space vehicles and weaponsDisputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedRepeated in the Oversight letters' footnotes; no document or named colleague has confirmed it⁠[14]⁠[52].
2026Daily Mail⁠[3]The deaths and disappearances form "a chilling pattern"Disputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedNo official body has found a link between any two cases⁠[2]⁠[35].
2026Ross Coulthart (NewsNation)⁠[1]Some of the cases "do raise suspicions and warrant further investigation"Still possible: Not tested enough to call either wayStill possibleFour people are still missing and Casias's death is undetermined, so several local cases remain open⁠[12]⁠[26].
2026Rep. Tim Burchett⁠[1]"There's just too many of them disappearing"Disputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedOrdinary rates predict hundreds of adult missing-person reports a year in a cleared workforce of 700,000; the list has four people missing over four and a half years⁠[60]⁠[13].
2026McCasland's wife, in the 911 call⁠[37]She had "some indication that he planned not to be found"Still possible: Not tested enough to call either wayStill possibleThe sheriff's office has not said what it concluded, and he has not been found⁠[12].
2026New York Post (Ross O'Keefe)⁠[14]JPL's Maiwald and Hicks were linked to a "secret program"Disputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedBoth worked at JPL; no programme has been named, and Hicks's daughter said he had known medical issues⁠[2]⁠[15].
2026Daily Mail (Chris Melore); BroBible⁠[69]Steven Garcia was a "missing nuclear official" in a "very high-level, overseeing position"Ruled out: The evidence contradicts itRuled outHe was a property custodian for the Kansas City National Security Campus's Albuquerque operations⁠[28].
2026Bernalillo County Sheriff's Office⁠[38]No evidence connects McCasland's disappearance to his classified workAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedRepeated in June, with the detail that he held a standard retiree clearance⁠[35].
2026Mick West⁠[13]Ordinary mortality explains the list: about 4,000 deaths in 22 months among 700,000 cleared workersAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedThis page's model, from CDC and FBI rates, gives the same order of numbers: about 190 homicides and 460 suicides over the list's span for such a workforce⁠[57]⁠[58].
2026Rep. Eric Burlison⁠[15]Matthew Sullivan's death was a suspicious suicideRuled out: The evidence contradicts itRuled outThe Virginia medical examiner ruled the death accidental⁠[20].
2026President Trump⁠[3]"I hope it's random, but we're going to know in the next week and a half"Still possible: Not tested enough to call either wayStill possibleNo findings had been published by late October 2026⁠[40].
2026Fox News; online posts⁠[19]Amy Eskridge was killed for her researchDisputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedHer death was reported as a suicide, with few official details; her family asked people not to "make too much of this"⁠[19]⁠[1].
2026Timcast IRL⁠[44]Eleven UFO scientists are missingRuled out: The evidence contradicts itRuled outFour people on the list are missing, and most were not UFO researchers; several were not scientists⁠[9]⁠[40].
2026Richard Hanania⁠[51]The "disappearing scientists" story is hysteria built on ordinary deathsAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedSeveral on the list were not scientists, and the numbers are below what base rates predict⁠[9]⁠[13].
2026Rep. James Comer⁠[45]"It's very unlikely that this is a coincidence"Disputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedHis committee's letters rested on "unconfirmed public reporting", and it had published no findings by late October 2026⁠[14].
2026Rep. Eric Burlison⁠[45]The cases have "all the hallmarks of a foreign operation"Disputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedNo agency has named a foreign service or suspect in any case; the only federal finding, on Loureiro, is that the gunman acted alone⁠[10]⁠[40].
2026FBI⁠[9]The FBI is "spearheading the effort to look for connections"Still possible: Not tested enough to call either wayStill possiblePatel promised a final report "in short order" on 28 April; none had been published by late October⁠[40].
2026NASA⁠[2]"Nothing related to NASA indicates a national security threat"Accepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedNo investigation has tied a NASA case to a threat⁠[2].
2026Early posts and reports⁠[9]Melissa Casias was a Los Alamos scientistRuled out: The evidence contradicts itRuled outHer niece said she was an administrative assistant without a high-level clearance⁠[9].
2026Michael Shermer⁠[64]The list is a case of finding "meaningful patterns in random noise"Likely: Best supported so far, not yet confirmedMost likelyConsistent with the base rate and with the separate causes found so far⁠[13]⁠[10].
2026Kash Patel, FBI director⁠[40]"They're all state cases", and some of the people were not scientistsAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedEach case is held by a local or state agency, and the list includes an administrative assistant, a property custodian and a retired construction foreman⁠[9]⁠[2].
2026Rep. Eric Burlison⁠[46]LeBlanc's death in a crash after he was reported missing "is not normal"Still possible: Not tested enough to call either wayStill possibleNo official ruling on the crash has been published⁠[27].
2026FBI and US Attorney, Boston⁠[10]Loureiro's killer acted alone, and the attacks had no nexus to terrorismAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedA federal finding after investigation⁠[10].
2026President Trump⁠[1]"So far, we're finding that there's not much of a connection"Likely: Best supported so far, not yet confirmedMost likelyConsistent with every local finding; no federal report has been published⁠[40].
2026BroBible, from Law&Crime bodycam footage⁠[47]McCasland met a "shadowy Pentagon unit" before he disappearedDisputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedThe footage shows a witness describing a dinner with Space Force personnel the evening before; nothing on the record ties the dinner to his disappearance⁠[47].
2026Daily Mail; BroBible⁠[48]McCasland was trying to leave Pentagon secret research programmes when he disappearedDisputed: Reviewers disagree about itDisputedThe sheriff's office said no Pentagon research centre appeared in its reports and that he held a standard retiree clearance⁠[35].
2026Office of the Medical Investigator, New Mexico⁠[26]The manner of Melissa Casias's death is undeterminedAccepted: Passed its tests and two independent reviewsAcceptedThe official finding; the state police investigation is open⁠[26]⁠[25].
2026David Grusch⁠[12]McCasland's disappearance is concerningStill possible: Not tested enough to call either wayStill possibleHe gave no evidence of a link to other cases, and the case remains open⁠[12].

What would settle it

For the connection, publication: the FBI's report on its review, which Patel promised in April, and any findings of the Oversight Committee's inquiry, with enough detail to say what each agency checked⁠[40]⁠[8]. A real link would show as something shared that ordinary life does not explain: a common programme or contract in the employment records, a common suspect, or the same foreign service in the counter-intelligence files. A proper test of excess deaths needs the employers' own figures, the workforce and its deaths by cause over the same years, compared with the rates this page uses⁠[57]⁠[62].

For the people, the ordinary work of the local cases. Finding McCasland, Reza, Chavez or Garcia would settle the most important questions on the list⁠[12]⁠[23]⁠[22]⁠[28]. A final ruling on how Casias died, the outcome of the Grillmair trial, and a published cause for LeBlanc's crash would close three more⁠[26]⁠[11]⁠[27]. For the claim behind the UFO strand, documents: anything released under the UAP records law or by the Inspector General that names a retrieval programme and the people in it⁠[68]⁠[53].

Questions

0 of 5 questions are answered.

Key questionsAll 5
0
Open: 4 answers, none ahead
0
0 of 0 sub-questions answered·0
Open: 3 answers, none ahead

Evidence 42 findings

Artifacts

The films, photos, papers and objects this mystery rests on, each with its own key and its distance from the original.

ArtifactsSee all 22
Scan2 steps from object
House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform · Public domain (US federal government work)
Scan2 steps from object
Department of Defense, Office of Inspector General · Public domain (US federal government work)
Document1 step from object
US Army CCDC Ground Vehicle Systems Center and To The Stars Academy of Arts and Science · Released under FOIA by the US Army; co-signed by a private company, so not copied here
Document2 steps from object
Los Alamos Police Department, as published by the Los Alamos Reporter · Linked, not copied; the bulletin carries photographs of a private person, which this site does not reproduce
Document2 steps from object
New Mexico State Police, as published by the Los Alamos Reporter · Linked, not copied; the published release carries a photograph of a private person, which this site does not reproduce
Document1 step from object
US Air Force · US federal government work; linked, not copied, because the page carries his official portrait and this site does not reproduce photographs of people in this case
See all 22 artifacts

See also

References

  1. 1.CNN's dated chronology of the story's spread (read in a syndicated copy), from a January 2026 YouTube stream to Trump's remark of 30 April that there was "not much of a connection".cited 12 times hereSRC0DCQDZS391TN
  2. 2.CNN's case-by-case review of 21 April 2026 (read in a syndicated copy): roles, dates, police findings, family statements, NASA's and Comer's statements.cited 12 times hereSRC0DCQCK12DHFD
  3. 3.The AP's account of the spread, the Daily Mail's piece of 22 March 2026, Trump's remark of 16 April, and researchers on why such patterns persuade.cited 5 times hereSRC0DCQE05M43NA
  4. 4.The sheriff's 16 March 2026 briefing as reported: the morning timeline, what was missing and left behind, where searchers looked, the FBI's role, and the tip lines.cited 8 times hereSRC0DCQBW9RME6T
  5. 5.His official assignments with dates, including the Phillips Research Site at Kirtland (2001–04), special programmes in the Pentagon (2009–11) and command of AFRL from May 2011.cited 9 times hereSRC0DCQCC8Q9PKP
  6. 6.His wife's public Facebook statement on his unpaid consulting for DeLonge, his past and present clearances, and her view that he was not abducted for secrets; the sheriff's 6 March appeal.cited 6 times hereSRC0DCQC4JZ7ZZM
  7. 7.Leavitt's reply to Peter Doocy on 15 April 2026 and her post of 17 April announcing a review of all the cases together.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQDRP40S7B
  8. 8.The committee's release of 20 April 2026 opening its inquiry, with the four letters to DOE, the Department of War, the FBI and NASA.cited 6 times hereSRC0DCQDJWYK9GD
  9. 9.The FBI's 21 April statement that it was "spearheading" a search for connections, NNSA's response, and the roles of each person, including those who were not scientists.cited 12 times hereSRC0DCQCJTADE6A
  10. 10.The FBI and US Attorney's findings of 29 April 2026 on the Brown University and Brookline shootings: one man acting alone, victims "symbolic in nature", no nexus to terrorism.cited 6 times hereSRC0DCQD38N0SMX
  11. 11.The charges against the man accused of killing Carl Grillmair at Llano on 16 February 2026, his not-guilty plea in May, and the earlier trespass report.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQD8VSCDYR
  12. 12.The latest status found (5 October 2026): McCasland still missing after seven months, the FBI's refusal of a records request, and David Grusch's remarks on The Joe Rogan Experience.cited 9 times hereSRC0DCQCBVR5BVM
  13. 13.The base-rate argument: about 700,000 Top Secret-cleared aerospace and nuclear workers would see some 70 homicides and 180 suicides in 22 months, against ten names on the list.cited 6 times hereSRC0DCQE14HCFBF
  14. 14.The letter itself (primary): built on "unconfirmed public reporting", it asks the FBI for a staff briefing by 27 April 2026 and repeats the reported Reza–McCasland "close professional connection".cited 10 times hereSRC0DCQDRFQBED1
  15. 15.The thirteen-name list of 24 April 2026 with dates, places and ages, including Jason Thomas, Matthew Sullivan and the additions made by Rep. Burlison.cited 12 times hereSRC0DCQD2FC32S2
  16. 16.The tertiary overview used as a list of leads; each case and statement was checked against the reporting cited here before use.cited 1 time hereSRC0DCQEX114T5E
  17. 17.Her dates (14 January 1943 – 27 July 2021) and the family's notice that she died peacefully in Huntsville.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQDJ2M2M3W
  18. 18.Ning Li's gravity research at UAH and AC Gravity, the 2001 Defense Department grant, and her son's account that she never went missing or left the country and was unable to work after 2014.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQDHVKAQYR
  19. 19.How Amy Eskridge's 2022 death was added to the list in April 2026, with the limits of the official record on it.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQDABB39X4
  20. 20.Reports the Virginia medical examiner's finding that Matthew Sullivan's death in May 2024 was accidental, and Rep. Burlison's letter of 16 April 2026 referring the case to the FBI.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQD9ZEHGVB
  21. 21.The Los Alamos police appeal for Anthony Chavez, reported missing on 8 May 2025, with the department's contact number.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQCKHMMTQP
  22. 22.The Los Alamos police file on Chavez as reported in June 2026: what was left at home, the leads checked, and the case marked inactive on 6 October 2025.cited 6 times hereSRC0DCQCKW5GKM5
  23. 23.The sheriff's department release on Monica Reza, last seen a little after 9 a.m. on 22 June 2025 near Mount Waterman, with its missing persons number.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQCTQR4685
  24. 24.Monica Jacinto (Reza)'s own account of developing the Mondaloy alloy at Rocketdyne in the 1990s and its first AFRL cost-sharing programme in 1999, the documented root of the claimed McCasland link.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQD1D1KRF0
  25. 25.The state police release: remains found by a hiker in Carson National Forest on 28 May 2026 and identified as Melissa Casias, cause and manner then undetermined, the investigation open.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQCT5KYDZG
  26. 26.Reports in August 2026 that the Office of the Medical Investigator classified the manner of Melissa Casias's death as undetermined.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQCTEBZTTB
  27. 27.Joshua LeBlanc's NASA work on nuclear propulsion and the crash of 22 July 2025, as the Alabama Law Enforcement Agency described it; no official ruling on cause is quoted.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQD9A2SQ47
  28. 28.What police in Albuquerque, Los Alamos and Taos County said about the four New Mexico cases in April 2026, including Steven Garcia's job and the date he went missing.cited 5 times hereSRC0DCQCK84XC06
  29. 29.The Middlesex District Attorney's statement of 17 March 2026 on the recovery of Jason Thomas's body: no foul play suspected.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQD2ZSCRE7
  30. 30.The District Attorney's release of 28 May 2026 (primary): the man accused of killing Carl Grillmair pleaded not guilty on 26 May to murder, carjacking and residential burglary; the charges are allegations.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQXJFXJWXA
  31. 31.His retirement in July 2013 after 34 years, and Karoline Leavitt's post of 17 April 2026 promising a review of the cases together.cited 2 times hereSRC0DCQCCPKTT24
  32. 32.Nick Pope's death at home in Tucson on 6 April 2026 from cancer, as his wife announced, and his 21 years at the UK Ministry of Defence.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQDJAAVH2Z
  33. 33.The county's release of 23 April 2026 identifying David Wilcock and carrying his family's statement on his death; used only to date it.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQDJMBKASJ
  34. 34.Where help is available in the US: call or text 988, or chat online, at any hour.cited 1 time hereSRC0DCQKZXHNGP9
  35. 35.The sheriff's office corrections of June 2026: a standard retiree clearance, no Pentagon research centre in its reports, and no known connection to other missing-scientist cases.cited 6 times hereSRC0DCQCBBWQ3XC
  36. 36.The same 16 March briefing: drones, helicopters, dogs, 700 homes canvassed, the sweatshirt found on 7 March, and the sheriff's office tip number.cited 9 times hereSRC0DCQC3Z5GENZ
  37. 37.Reports the 911 call audio, obtained by Law&Crime Network, in which his wife said she had some indication he planned not to be found.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQC5289B6Y
  38. 38.The sheriff's office statement of April 2026 that it had no evidence tying the disappearance to his classified work or to the other cases.cited 5 times hereSRC0DCQC4CDF8ZT
  39. 39.The end of the first search phase for Reza on 29 June 2025 and the case's transfer to the sheriff's Missing Persons Unit.cited 2 times hereSRC0DCQCV0F8ZEE
  40. 40.Kash Patel on 28 April 2026: "They're all state cases", some on the list are not scientists, and a final report would come "in short order".cited 5 times hereSRC0DCQDS1F1EC4
  41. 41.The March 2026 claim, unattributed, that Monica Reza worked on a rocket alloy in a government project overseen by McCasland; cited as an example of the claim, not as evidence for it.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQD20SHSB1
  42. 42.Rep. Burlison's post of 30 March 2026 saying he had already asked for FBI involvement.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQDSA3MTDJ
  43. 43.Shows that Fox's Will Cain Show had taken up the story by 7 April 2026; the exact air date was not confirmed.cited 1 time hereSRC0DCQE0H3MYJG
  44. 44.The Timcast IRL episode of 18 April 2026 (Tim Pool and co-hosts) framing the list as "11 UFO scientists missing"; cited as an example of how podcasts described the cases, from its listing (title, date, description).cited 2 times hereSRC0DCQWDEFM2ZB
  45. 45.The strongest official statements of the connection case: Comer's "very unlikely that this is a coincidence" and Burlison's "all the hallmarks of a foreign operation", with a former FBI agent's dissent.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQDSQFKX6K
  46. 46.Rep. Burlison's post of 28 April 2026 adding LeBlanc to the list ("This is not normal").cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQD9HS5A5X
  47. 47.The 29 May 2026 article on police bodycam footage (obtained by Law&Crime) in which an unnamed witness said she and Space Force personnel dined with McCasland the evening before he vanished; cited for the claim and its framing.cited 2 times hereSRC0DCQWF1G9ZX4
  48. 48.The June 2026 claim, passed on from the Daily Mail and a FOIA requester, that McCasland was trying to resign from research posts when he disappeared; cited for the claim, which the sheriff's office later corrected in part.cited 2 times hereSRC0DCQWEM5XMZK
  49. 49.The text of DeLonge's January 2016 email to John Podesta, released by WikiLeaks, saying McCasland had run the Wright-Patterson laboratory and helped assemble DeLonge's advisory team.cited 5 times hereSRC0DCQCD2NPV32
  50. 50.Grusch, D. 2023. Opening statement to the House Oversight Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs. U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Accountability.cited 10 times hereSRC0CXDN62A7S39
  51. 51.The argument (19 April 2026) that several people on the list were not scientists at all and that the two who were serious researchers were killed for personal or criminal reasons.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQE78CJST0
  52. 52.Her companions' account of the hike as reported, and the distinction between the claimed McCasland link (a social media post) and anything confirmed.cited 6 times hereSRC0DCQCVFMQ04H
  53. 53.The Inspector General's FOIA letter of 7 March 2024 (primary, held by The Black Vault): 25 pages of Grusch's submissions withheld in full, partly for a pending law-enforcement inquiry.cited 5 times hereSRC0DCQE8T5D6X5
  54. 54.All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, U. 2024. Report on the Historical Record of U.S. Government Involvement with Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP), Volume I. U.S. Department of Defense.cited 22 times hereSRC0D0140M03414
  55. 55.The agreement itself (primary, released under FOIA and held by The Black Vault): from October 2019 the Army would test TTSA's metamaterial samples and other claimed technologies; it names no programme or person on the list.cited 6 times hereSRC0DCQEH0BHHD8
  56. 56.The Black Vault's account (24 October 2024) of its FOIA cases on the Army–TTSA agreement (FA-21-0064, FA-23-0015, FA-24-0006) and the exemptions used to withhold records.cited 4 times hereSRC0DCQEHAVW4WF
  57. 57.The 2024 US homicide rate, 5.9 per 100,000 (20,162 deaths), an input to the base-rate model.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQEHN0D208
  58. 58.The 2024 US suicide rate, 14.4 per 100,000 (48,824 deaths), an input to the base-rate model.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQEHYMW51F
  59. 59.The 2024 US death rate from unintentional injury, 58.1 per 100,000 (197,449 deaths), an input to the base-rate model.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQEJEPDYE1
  60. 60.NCIC figures for 2024: 183,952 missing-person entries for people 18 and over, and 93,447 records still active on 31 December (25,493 of them under 18), used for the model's missing-person rates.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQERW4C3D0
  61. 61.The US resident population aged 18 and over on 1 July 2024, 266,978,268, the denominator for the model's missing-person rates (Census table, copy hosted by the Hawaii DBEDT).cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQESATP6JW
  62. 62.The size of the NNSA workforce in fiscal 2022 (about 1,800 federal staff and 55,000 contractor staff at seven sites), part of the model's narrow workforce.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQESV6YJJ9
  63. 63.NASA's civil-service headcount of 17,391 in fiscal 2025 (excluding JPL), part of the model's narrow workforce.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQETC6HSCZ
  64. 64.Skeptic's case (25 April 2026) that the pattern is patternicity and base-rate neglect, with the cases that would be needed to test it left out.cited 2 times hereSRC0DCQE1M942MY
  65. 65.The 1980s British precedent: more than twenty defence scientists, mostly at GEC-Marconi, dead between 1982 and 1988, which the Ministry of Defence called coincidence.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQE7H9RY1W
  66. 66.A tertiary summary of the Marconi cases and their inquest verdicts, including the 2021 DNA finding that one death first ruled a suicide was a murder by an unconnected offender.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQE84MFBP4
  67. 67.A contemporary report on the eleven microbiologist deaths of November 2001 to March 2002, with the cause found in each and the American Society for Microbiology's point about base rates.cited 3 times hereSRC0DCQE8EYQ47B
  68. 68.Barna, S. 2024. Implications of the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Amendment in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Inside Government Contracts (Covington & Burling).cited 3 times hereSRC0CXDN7S045PC
  69. 69.The 13 April 2026 article calling Steven Garcia a "nuclear official", passing on an anonymous source to the Daily Mail who described his job as "a very high-level, overseeing position"; cited for the claim, not as evidence for it.cited 2 times hereSRC0DCQWE0BN5G2
Last edited 29 Oct 2026
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