Evidence · America's missing scientists, 2021–2026

The site's base-rate model expects 10 to 95 times as many homicides in the workforce as the list holds

Using 2024 CDC rates and FBI missing-person figures over the 4.6 years the list spans, the model expects about 20 homicides, 49 suicides, 198 accidental deaths and 51 adult missing-person reports a year in a narrow NNSA-and-NASA workforce of 74,191, and about 190, 460, 1,870 and 480 in a 700,000-strong cleared workforce; the list holds 15 cases in all, 2 of them homicides and 4 missing.

Supported0

What it bears on 1 answer

No common cause: separate cases gathered after the fact from a large workforce

Still possible

FOR

Found by 1 run

Run	Measured	Result	Against	Decision	Date
Run	Expected homicides over the window, and expected homicides, suicides and accidental deaths combined, against the counts on the list	{'broad': {'total': 2518.2, 'suicide': 462.5, 'homicide': 189.5, 'open_missing_records': 178.2, 'unintentional_injury': 1866.2, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 482.3}, 'narrow': {'total': 266.9, 'suicide': 49, 'homicide': 20.1, 'open_missing_records': 18.9, 'unintentional_injury': 197.8, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 51.1}}	list_cases 15 · list_homicides 2 · list_missing_at_2026_10_28 4	The list falls one to two orders of magnitude below the ordinary expectation for either workforce (expected homicides 10 to 95 times the listed 2; expected violent or accidental deaths 18 to 168 times the listed 15 cases), so its size gives no evidence of excess deaths or disappearances. The test cannot rule out a small targeted cause hidden inside the ordinary toll.

Cite it

Mysteries Department. (2026). The site's base-rate model expects 10 to 95 times as many homicides in the workforce as the list holds [Evidence EVD0DCQT2HT9TG5]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DCQT2HT9TG5

@misc{mysteriesdept_evd0dcqt2ht9tg5,
  title     = {The site's base-rate model expects 10 to 95 times as many homicides in the workforce as the list holds},
  author    = {{Mysteries Department}},
  year      = {2026},
  note      = {Evidence, catalog key EVD0DCQT2HT9TG5},
  url       = {https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DCQT2HT9TG5}
}