QuestionsAmerica's missing scientists, 2021–2026Are the deaths and disappearances on the list connected?Answer
Answer · America's missing scientists, 2021–2026
No common cause: separate cases gathered after the fact from a large workforce
The cases are not connected: each has its own cause, and the list is what one gets by picking, after the fact, the unusual deaths and disappearances from a workforce of hundreds of thousands and adding names as they come to notice.
Where it stands
Still possibleNine pieces of evidence for, none against. It needs two reviews to be accepted.
What it predicts
- Each open case, when resolved, has a cause particular to the person (illness, accident, suicide, or a crime with a local motive).
- The FBI's review, if published, finds no shared programme, suspect or foreign service.
- The number of such deaths among cleared aerospace and nuclear staff is not above what national death rates predict for a workforce of that size and age.
What would rule it out
- A common perpetrator, or evidence tying two or more cases to the same foreign or domestic actor.
- Employer figures showing deaths by homicide, suicide or accident, or long-term disappearances, well above the base rate for the same workforce and years.
Evidence 9 for · none against
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Tested by 1 run
| Run | Measured | Result | Against | Decision | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | expected homicides over the window, and expected homicides, suicides and accidental deaths combined, against the counts on the list | {'broad': {'total': 2518.2, 'suicide': 462.5, 'homicide': 189.5, 'open_missing_records': 178.2, 'unintentional_injury': 1866.2, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 482.3}, 'narrow': {'total': 266.9, 'suicide': 49, 'homicide': 20.1, 'open_missing_records': 18.9, 'unintentional_injury': 197.8, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 51.1}} | list_cases 15 · list_homicides 2 · list_missing_at_2026_10_28 4 | The list falls one to two orders of magnitude below the ordinary expectation for either workforce (expected homicides 10 to 95 times the listed 2; expected violent or accidental deaths 18 to 168 times the listed 15 cases), so its size gives no evidence of excess deaths or disappearances. The test cannot rule out a small targeted cause hidden inside the ordinary toll. |
The questions it answers
Open4 answers, none ahead
Cite it
Mysteries Department. (2026). No common cause: separate cases gathered after the fact from a large workforce [Answer ANS0DCQNXQ4AMY3]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/ANS0DCQNXQ4AMY3
@misc{mysteriesdept_ans0dcqnxq4amy3,
title = {No common cause: separate cases gathered after the fact from a large workforce},
author = {{Mysteries Department}},
year = {2026},
note = {Answer, catalog key ANS0DCQNXQ4AMY3},
url = {https://mysteriesdept.com/r/ANS0DCQNXQ4AMY3}
}