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MethodsStatisticsExpected deaths and disappearances in a cleared workforce (base-rate model)
Method · statistics

Expected deaths and disappearances in a cleared workforce (base-rate model)

To give the baseline a list of deaths and disappearances must beat before it counts as a cluster.

StatisticsVersion 1.0Licence MIT1 runUsed on 1 mystery

Questions it answers

Code Python

Download module (.py)baserate.pyView source

Runs and results 1 run

RunMysteryMeasuredResultAgainstDate
RUN0DCQT6K8QMAEAmerica'sExpected homicides over the window, and expected homicides, suicides and accidental deaths combined, against the counts on the list{'broad': {'total': 2518.2, 'suicide': 462.5, 'homicide': 189.5, 'open_missing_records': 178.2, 'unintentional_injury': 1866.2, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 482.3}, 'narrow': {'total': 266.9, 'suicide': 49, 'homicide': 20.1, 'open_missing_records': 18.9, 'unintentional_injury': 197.8, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 51.1}}list_cases 15 · list_homicides 2 · list_missing_at_2026_10_28 4

Applied to

America's missing scientists, 2021–2026
1 datasetBase-rate inputs for the cleared aerospace and nuclear workforce

References

  1. The base-rate argument: about 700,000 Top Secret-cleared aerospace and nuclear workers would see some 70 homicides and 180 suicides in 22 months, against ten names on the list.
  2. The 2024 US homicide rate, 5.9 per 100,000 (20,162 deaths), an input to the base-rate model.
  3. The 2024 US suicide rate, 14.4 per 100,000 (48,824 deaths), an input to the base-rate model.
  4. The 2024 US death rate from unintentional injury, 58.1 per 100,000 (197,449 deaths), an input to the base-rate model.
  5. NCHS Data Brief 572: 2024 suicide rates by sex for ages 25–44 and 45–64, used for the model's working-age range.
  6. NCIC figures for 2024: 183,952 missing-person entries for people 18 and over, and 93,447 records still active on 31 December (25,493 of them under 18), used for the model's missing-person rates.
  7. The US resident population aged 18 and over on 1 July 2024, 266,978,268, the denominator for the model's missing-person rates (Census table, copy hosted by the Hawaii DBEDT).
  8. The size of the NNSA workforce in fiscal 2022 (about 1,800 federal staff and 55,000 contractor staff at seven sites), part of the model's narrow workforce.
  9. NASA's civil-service headcount of 17,391 in fiscal 2025 (excluding JPL), part of the model's narrow workforce.
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