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If the dips are dust, what produces it in large, short-lived clumps?

Asked 26 Oct 2026 by ·Part of What blocks the light during the deep, irregular dips?·6 answers·0·0 following
Most likely: the fragments of a broken-up comet or planetesimal on an eccentric orbit, passing in front of the star in…Ahead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.

Where it stands

Six answers have been proposed. The fragments of a broken-up comet or planetesimal on an eccentric orbit, passing in front of the star in… leads, with evidence 1 for, 2 against: partly supported by its tests. Five are still possible.

Why it matters

Dust is now the favoured occulter, but a mature main-sequence star should not have large amounts of fresh dust without an infrared excess⁠[1]⁠[2]. The source is the open core of the dust reading.

Answers 6

Evidence: 1 for, 2 against
Most likely
Evidence: none yet
Still possible
Evidence: 1 for, 1 against
Disputed
Evidence: none yet
Still possible
None of these.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible
Evidence: 1 against
Disputed
Show 1 more answer

History

  1. Boyajian et al. puts forward: the fragments of a broken-up comet or planetesimal on an eccentric orbit, passing in front of the star in…
  2. Bodman & Quillen: the same comet-family model does not explain the large Quarter 8 dip.Against: The fragments of a broken-up comet or planetesimal on an eccentric orbit, passing in front of the star in…
  3. Schaefer: the century fade, if real, would need about 648,000 giant comets in a century.Against: The fragments of a broken-up comet or planetesimal on an eccentric orbit, passing in front of the star in…
  4. Bodman & Quillen: a cluster of about 30 comets of 100 km radius, or 300 of 10 km, reaches a 20 per cent depth; one family from…For: The fragments of a broken-up comet or planetesimal on an eccentric orbit, passing in front of the star in…
  5. Ballesteros et al. puts forward: swarms of debris at the Trojan points of a ringed planet on a long orbit.
  6. Metzger et al. puts forward: debris from a planet or its moons that the star disrupted or swallowed.
  7. Pearce et al. puts forward: comets driven onto star-grazing orbits by the bound M-dwarf companion through the eccentric Kozai-Lidov…
  8. Shestakova et al. puts forward: bodies falling towards the star and destroyed by heating, releasing dust.
  9. Pearce et al.: the companion is bound, at 880 ± 10 au projected separation.For: Comets driven onto star-grazing orbits by the bound M-dwarf companion through the eccentric Kozai-Lidov…
  10. Young & Wyatt: a Monte Carlo model gives a probability of about 1.3 × 10⁻³ of seeing one or more such stars in the Kepler…Against: Comets driven onto star-grazing orbits by the bound M-dwarf companion through the eccentric Kozai-Lidov…
  11. Yang & Satarla: tESS 2-minute data in July and August 2021 (Sector 41) show no dips deeper than 0.5 per cent.Against: Swarms of debris at the Trojan points of a ringed planet on a long orbit.
  12. Asked on this site
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