Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 BC

Sturt W. Manning, Cindy Kocik, Brita Lorentzen et al., 2023. Nature 614, 719–724.

Ring-width and δ13C records from juniper timbers excavated at Gordion, about 230 km west of the Hittite capital, form a chronology of about 1775–748 (±3) BC from 23 samples of some 18 trees. Taking the lowest quarter of growth as dry years, the authors find dry years throughout but an unusually severe run of three consecutive dry years around 1198–1196 (±3) BC, which they argue could have overwhelmed storage and other risk-buffering practices. The paper notes that Hattusa was emptied by the royal administration and only later burnt.

Late Bronze Age collapseArticledoi: 10.1038/s41586-022-05693-yChecked against the original0

What it's used for here

The annually resolved climate record at the centre of the drought argument.

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Cited by on this site 23 records

Consecutive harvest failures in central Anatolia made the capital and its grain system unsustainable.

Answer

ANS

The court moved away for political reasons, leaving the capital to decline.

Answer

ANS

The decisive stress was short runs of extreme dry years, not the long trend.

Answer

ANS

Juniper timbers from Gordion, including the Midas Mound tumulus

ART

Gordion juniper ring-width indices, δ13C series and drought-year tables (Manning et al. 2023)

Dataset

DAT

Dry years occur regularly in the Gordion record; the run at 1198–1196 BC stands out.

Evidence

EVD

Elements of the Hittite political system continued in the south-east and northern Syria, on a smaller scale.

Evidence

EVD

Hattusa was emptied by its own administration and burned later, not destroyed by attack.

Evidence

EVD

Investigations indicate the city was emptied by its administration and burned later.

Evidence

EVD

The Gordion tree rings show three consecutive severe dry years about 1198–1196 BC, shortly before the end of…

Evidence

EVD

The Hittite state faced rivals, usurpers and breakaway regions throughout its history, and its capital was…

Evidence

EVD

Thirteenth-century texts on grain shortages lack detail and are read differently by different scholars.

Evidence

EVD

Three consecutive severe dry years about 1198–1196 BC in the Gordion record, 230 km from Hattusa.

Evidence

EVD

Suppiluliuma II, the last recorded Hittite king, begins his reign

EVT

The Hittite administration abandons Hattusa, which is later burned

EVT

Three consecutive severe dry years in the Gordion tree-ring record

EVT

Sturt W. Manning

FIG

Suppiluliuma II

FIG

The Late Bronze Age collapse

The mystery article

MYS

How severe and how widespread was the climate change around 1200 BC?

Question

QST

Were the destructions clustered in the years after the 1198–1196 BC drought, or spread over a century?

Question

QST

What was the principal cause of the end of the Late Bronze Age palace system in the eastern Mediterranean?

Question

QST

Why was Hattusa abandoned?

Question

QST

Cite it

Manning, S. W., Kocik, C., Lorentzen, B., & Sparks, J. P. (2023). Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 BC. Nature 614, 719–724. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y

@article{manning2023severe,
  author = {Manning, Sturt W. and Kocik, Cindy and Lorentzen, Brita and Sparks, Jed P.},
  title = {Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 BC},
  journal = {Nature 614, 719–724},
  year = {2023},
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y}
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 BC
AU  - Manning, Sturt W.
AU  - Kocik, Cindy
AU  - Lorentzen, Brita
AU  - Sparks, Jed P.
PY  - 2023
JO  - Nature 614, 719–724
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y
ER  -

Manning, Sturt W. et al.. “Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 BC.” Nature 614, 719–724 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y.