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How severe and how widespread was the climate change around 1200 BC?

Asked 26 Oct 2026 by ·Part of What was the principal cause of the end of the Late Bronze Age palace system in the eastern Mediterranean?·4 answers·0·0 following
Most likely: a regional shift to drier, cooler conditions lasting about three centuriesAhead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.

Where it stands

Four answers have been proposed. A regional shift to drier, cooler conditions lasting about three centuries. leads, with evidence 1 for: partly supported by its tests. Three are still possible.

Why it matters

The climate reading depends on whether the stress was a long regional drying, a short extreme event, or something that varied from place to place⁠[1]⁠[2]⁠[3].

Answers 4

Evidence: 1 for
Most likely
Evidence: 1 for
Most likely
Evidence: 1 for, 1 against
Most likely
None of these.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible

History

  1. Finné et al. puts forward: climate change was regionally variable; some areas were not in drought when they collapsed.
  2. Finné et al.: pylos was generally wetter at the destruction, with drying afterwards.For: Climate change was regionally variable; some areas were not in drought when they collapsed.
  3. Kaniewski et al. puts forward: a regional shift to drier, cooler conditions lasting about three centuries.
  4. Kaniewski et al.: coastal Syria, Cyprus and the Sea of Galilee all record a dry phase.For: A regional shift to drier, cooler conditions lasting about three centuries.
  5. Manning et al. puts forward: the decisive stress was short runs of extreme dry years, not the long trend.
  6. Manning et al.: dry years occur regularly in the Gordion record; the run at 1198–1196 BC stands out.For: The decisive stress was short runs of extreme dry years, not the long trend.
  7. Hagens: a re-reading counts fifteen significant droughts over a century.Against: The decisive stress was short runs of extreme dry years, not the long trend.
  8. Asked on this site
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