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Were the destructions clustered in the years after the 1198–1196 BC drought, or spread over a century?

Most likely: most destructions fall within a few decades after about 1200 BCAhead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.

Where it stands

Three answers have been proposed. Most destructions fall within a few decades after about 1200 BC. leads, with evidence 2 for: partly supported by its tests. Two are still possible.

Why it matters

A single trigger predicts a tight cluster; a long process predicts a spread. The Gordion drought gives the first exact climate date to test against⁠[1], and Knapp and Manning emphasise that the changes were spread out⁠[2].

Answers 3

Evidence: 2 for
Most likely
None of these.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible

History

  1. Kaniewski et al. puts forward: most destructions fall within a few decades after about 1200 BC.
  2. Kaniewski et al.: gibala-Tell Tweini is dated to 1192–1190 BC and is contemporary with Ugarit's destruction.For: Most destructions fall within a few decades after about 1200 BC.
  3. Langgut et al.: the Sea of Galilee dry phase begins about 1250 BCE, before the main destructions.For: The destructions and abandonments are spread over a century or more, from the mid 13th to the 12th century.
  4. Knapp & Manning puts forward: the destructions and abandonments are spread over a century or more, from the mid 13th to the 12th century.
  5. Knapp & Manning: the review places the changes at different times from the mid to late 13th through the 12th century.For: The destructions and abandonments are spread over a century or more, from the mid 13th to the 12th century.
  6. Finné et al.: pylos was destroyed about 3150–3130 BP.For: Most destructions fall within a few decades after about 1200 BC.
  7. Asked on this site
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