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What was the principal cause of the end of the Late Bronze Age palace system in the eastern Mediterranean?

Asked 26 Oct 2026 by ·6 answers·0·0 following
Most likely: no single cause; several stresses (climate, famine, migration, war, earthquakes, internal unrest) struck…Ahead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.

Where it stands

Six answers have been proposed. Drought and cooling, with extreme multi-year droughts, caused harvest failure and famine that the palace… leads, with evidence 3 for, 2 against: partly supported by its tests. Five are still possible. Of the three narrower questions under it, none is answered yet.

Why it matters

This is the question the field has argued for a century. Each reading implies a different sequence of events and a different kind of evidence, and the recent climate records have shifted the balance without closing it⁠[1]⁠[2].

Answers 6

Evidence: 1 for, 1 against
Disputed
Evidence: 2 for, 1 against
Disputed
None of these.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible
Show 1 more answer

History

  1. Edgerton & Wilson puts forward: invading coalitions of seaborne peoples from the Aegean and Anatolia destroyed the cities and states.
  2. Edgerton & Wilson: ramesses III's Year 8 inscription names the confederation and says no land could stand before it.For: Invading coalitions of seaborne peoples from the Aegean and Anatolia destroyed the cities and states.
  3. Nur & Cline puts forward: a sequence of major earthquakes destroyed the palaces and cities.
  4. Nur & Cline: the authors themselves call the evidence not conclusive.Against: A sequence of major earthquakes destroyed the palaces and cities.
  5. Nur & Cline: nearly all destroyed sites lie in 20th-century zones of strong shaking.For: A sequence of major earthquakes destroyed the palaces and cities.
  6. Kaniewski et al. puts forward: drought and cooling, with extreme multi-year droughts, caused harvest failure and famine that the palace…
  7. Kaniewski et al.: coastal Syria shows a 300-year cool, dry period from about 3200 years ago with winter rain down about 40%.For: Drought and cooling, with extreme multi-year droughts, caused harvest failure and famine that the palace…
  8. Feldman et al.: early Iron Age Ashkelon carried European-related ancestry not present before.For: Invading coalitions of seaborne peoples from the Aegean and Anatolia destroyed the cities and states.
  9. Cline puts forward: no single cause; several stresses (climate, famine, migration, war, earthquakes, internal unrest) struck…
  10. Manning et al.: the Gordion tree rings show three consecutive severe dry years about 1198–1196 BC, shortly before the end of…For: Drought and cooling, with extreme multi-year droughts, caused harvest failure and famine that the palace…
  11. Manning et al.: hattusa was emptied by its own administration and burned later, not destroyed by attack.Against: Invading coalitions of seaborne peoples from the Aegean and Anatolia destroyed the cities and states.
  12. Manning et al.: the Hittite state faced rivals, usurpers and breakaway regions throughout its history, and its capital was…For: Internal political and social conflict (dynastic struggle, revolt, the weakening of central authority)…
  13. Asked on this site
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