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Research session 2 · Tabby's star (KIC 8462852)

Blend and emulsion excluded for the 1960s step; the 2019 dip has a transit shape and a calendar

Four tests runnable on data in hand: a Gaia DR3 neighbour screen and a plate colour-term stratification remove the two ordinary systematics that could fake the post-1969 offset in DASCH DR7; a shape comparison shows the 3 September 2019 TESS dip is a limb-darkened transit unlike every Kepler dip; and a coverage-based period scan reproduces the published orbital windows, shows two printed ones are typographical, and gives the next transit dates.

Session 231 Oct 2026Analysis4 runs7 evidence

In brief

  1. Blend and emulsion colour cannot produce the post-1969 offset; the 2019 TESS dip is a limb-darkened transit unlike the Kepler dips; the orbital-period windows are confirmed from coverage alone, with the next predicted transits in early 2027 and February 2028.

What moved1 question changed

What's next7 steps set

Open
Check AAVSO and ASAS-SN for 18-23 October 2026
Kept on this session, not tied to a questionSet this session
Open
Observing request for 15-16 Jan 2027, 28 Feb-2 Mar 2027, 17-23 Feb 2028
Kept on this session, not tied to a questionSet this session
Open
Eccentric and ringed transit fit with propagated timing uncertainty
Kept on this session, not tied to a questionSet this session
Open
Cross-archive step test (Sonneberg, Sternberg, Maria Mitchell)
Kept on this session, not tied to a questionSet this session
Open
Per-plate differential within a few arcminutes (platephot)
Kept on this session, not tied to a questionSet this session
Open
Sector 75 light curve from FFIs
Kept on this session, not tied to a questionSet this session
Open
2018-2026 ground record (AAVSO, ASAS-SN v1) by hand
Kept on this session, not tied to a questionSet this session

Next steps live on their questions, where anyone can take one up.

What was done

Set out to do. Of the open items after Session 1, run the four that bear on a key question and need only data already available: Gaia neighbour screen, colour-term stratification, transit-window table, dip-shape fit.

Found.

  1. No blend. Gaia DR3 sources within 15 arcsec of the star carry 1.2 per cent of its G light (the bound M dwarf at 1.8 arcsec is the brightest); a 9 per cent step cannot be a blend on the coarse dnb plates. With the matched sample re-screened on Gaia (39 stars) the target stays first or second on slope, differential slope and gap offset at z about 1.8.
  2. Not emulsion colour. On plates DASCH classes as good blue the offset is 0.097 mag (0.088 on all plates), above every one of 41 matched stars (z 1.9); the within-epoch dependence of residuals on colour term (0.48 mag per unit before 1953) would make the post-1969 points brighter, not fainter [@williams2025dasch]. The step is now either real or a systematic tied to the star's exact plate position.
  3. Transit shape. A limb-darkened planet transit fits the Sector 15 dip with reduced chi-square 1.04, beating a Gaussian dust profile by 196 in BIC and a free asymmetric trapezoid by 27; Rp/Rs 0.110, b 0.79, a/Rs 296, implying a stellar density of 460 kg per cubic metre at a thousand-day period against about 410 expected. Every deep Kepler dip has ingress faster than egress (ratios 0.57-0.77); the 2019 dip does not.
  4. Calendar. Kepler and TESS coverage (1,523 days) excludes 80 per cent of periods between 100 and 3,000 days for a strict transit and leaves the published windows 1, 3 and 5 [@madurga2026evidence]; windows 2 and 4 as printed are excluded by Kepler on 3-6 March 2011 and 21 April 2012 and are evidently typographical. Window 1 survives only because its March 2011 transit falls in the Q8/Q9 gap, and its 2022 return missed Sector 54 by eight days. Window 3's second return, 18-23 October 2026, had no space coverage. Next: 15-16 January and 28 February to 2 March 2027, then 17-23 February 2028. TESS covered under a tenth of the 782-day recurrence windows [@socas2026revisiting], so that model is untested.

Concluded. The century question narrows to a real ~0.07-0.09 mag drop in the 1950s-60s versus a position-specific plate systematic; the cross-archive step test and a per-plate differential within a few arcminutes are what remain. The dips question gains a dated, falsifiable prediction with shape evidence on its side.

Left open. Check AAVSO/ASAS-SN for 18-23 October 2026; observing request for the 2027 and 2028 windows; eccentric-orbit and ring fit to widen the windows honestly; cross-archive step test; platephot differential; Sector 75 from FFIs; the 2018-2026 ground record.

Runs 4
RunMeasuredResultAgainstDecision
Gaia DR3 neighbour screen and re-run of the matched-comparison testTarget neighbour flux fraction; target percentile and z among Gaia-screened matched stars on slope, differential slope and gap offsetsession_1_apass_screen 49 matched, sd 0.068, z 1.96, percentile 0.98No blend: the target's neighbours within the plate resolution are 1.2 per cent of its light, far below the 9 per cent a blend would need. With the Gaia screen the matched scatter is 0.077 and the target stays first or second on every statistic at z about 1.8. The blend explanation for the post-1969 offset is excluded; the ranking result of Session 1 stands.
Colour-term stratification of the post-1969 offsetTarget offset by plate colour class; residual-vs-colour-term regression within epochs; target rank among matched stars on good-blue platesThe offset is not an emulsion-colour effect: it is as large on good-blue plates as on all plates, the target is above every matched star either way, and the sign of the within-epoch colour-term dependence would make the post-1969 points brighter, not fainter.
Period exclusion and transit windows for the 2019 dip from Kepler and TESS coverageFraction of periods excluded; allowed ranges; per-window past/next transit dates and coverage; recurrence-window coverage fractionsCoverage alone reproduces the published windows 1, 3 and 5 and shows windows 2 and 4 as printed are excluded (typographical). The most recent predicted return, window 3 on 18-23 October 2026, had no space coverage; the next falls in January to March 2027 near solar conjunction, then 17-23 February 2028. The recurrence model is essentially untested by TESS.
Shape of the 2019 dip: transit, trapezoid and dust-profile fits, and asymmetry against the Kepler dipsBIC per model; derived transit parameters; ingress/egress ratio and deficit fraction before minimum per dipThe limb-darkened transit is the preferred shape by a wide margin and its duration is consistent with a thousand-day circular orbit around this star; the deep Kepler dips are uniformly skewed in the opposite sense. Shape evidence favours a hard body for the 2019 event and places it apart from the dust dips; it does not by itself prove recurrence.
Answers proposed 2
Answers proposed 3
Answers taken up again 2
Evidence found 7
Consulted: sources 3
Produced: datasets 2

Cite it

Mysteries Department. (2026). Session 2: Blend and emulsion excluded for the 1960s step; the 2019 dip has a transit shape and a calendar [Research session SES0DEC3K09VKH5]. https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/tabbys-star/sessions/SES0DEC3K09VKH5/session-2-blend-and-emulsion-excluded-for-the-1960s-step-the
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