Tabby's star (KIC 8462852)Evidence
Evidence · Tabby's star (KIC 8462852)
TESS covered under a tenth of the recurrence model's predicted windows
For the 781.6-day recurrence of dip families (spread 80 days per cycle), the predicted fifth and sixth returns span October 2020 to December 2022 and September 2022 to April 2025; TESS Sectors 41, 54, 55, 81 and 82 cover 9 and 5 per cent of those windows, so the absence of dips in them is not a test of the model.
What it means
Key questionWhat blocks the light during the deep, irregular dips?
Most likely: clumps of fine dust orbiting the star, released by comets, planetesimals or other bodies close to it
Most likelyunchanged
Part of itHas the dipping stopped, or does it come in episodes?
Most likely: dipping comes in episodes separated by years of quiet, with no strict period
Most likelyunchanged
Answer this evidence bears onThe dipping recurs on a long orbital period.
Bears onnone for, 1 against
Disputedunchanged
How it was found 1 run
Result. Coverage alone reproduces the published windows 1, 3 and 5 and shows windows 2 and 4 as printed are excluded (typographical). The most recent predicted return, window 3 on 18-23 October 2026, had no space coverage; the next falls in January to March 2027 near solar conjunction, then 17-23 February 2028. The recurrence model is essentially untested by TESS..
Fraction of periods excluded; allowed ranges; per-window past/next transit dates and coverage; recurrence-window coverage fractions{'next_transits': {'W1': ['2022-06-29..07-01 (8 d before S54)', '2025-04-24..27', '2028-02-17..23'], 'W3': ['2023-03-27..30', '2026-10-18..23', '2030-05-11..19'], 'W4': ['2023-05-11', '2027-01-15..16'], 'W5': ['2023-06-01..02', '2027-02-28..03-02']}, 'W1_survives_because': '2011-03-15..20 falls in the Q8/Q9 gap', 'coverage_days_total': 1522.6, 'excluded_as_printed': {'W2': 'Kepler 2011-03-03..06', 'W4': 'Kepler 2012-04-21'}, 'allowed_near_published': {'W1': [1029.45, 1031.7], 'W3': [1300.2, 1304.05], 'W5': [1365.85, 1368.5], 'nearest_to_W4': [1354.4, 1356.1]}, 'fraction_excluded_100_3000d': 0.804, 'recurrence_coverage_fraction': {'n1_2013': 0.56, 'n4_2019': 0.07, 'n5_2021': 0.09, 'n6_2024': 0.05}}Coverage alone reproduces the published windows 1, 3 and 5 and shows windows 2 and 4 as printed are excluded (typographical). The most recent predicted return, window 3 on 18-23 October 2026, had no space coverage; the next falls in January to March 2027 near solar conjunction, then 17-23 February 2028. The recurrence model is essentially untested by TESS.
Kepler long-cadence light curve of KIC 8462852, Quarters 0-17, as one CSVTESS light curves of TIC 185336364 (KIC 8462852), Sectors 14-82, as flat CSVcode/transit_windows.py3 outputs
Notes from the run
Kepler and TESS coverage intervals are read from the data files; 2015-2018 ground photometry is not used for exclusion. Future TESS sectors (expected 2027) are not in the coverage table.
Sources 1
SRC
Cite it
Mysteries Department. (2026). TESS covered under a tenth of the recurrence model's predicted windows [Evidence EVD0DEC1DVYSPFY]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DEC1DVYSPFY
@misc{mysteriesdept_evd0dec1dvyspfy,
title = {TESS covered under a tenth of the recurrence model's predicted windows},
author = {{Mysteries Department}},
year = {2026},
note = {Evidence, catalog key EVD0DEC1DVYSPFY},
url = {https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DEC1DVYSPFY}
}