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What pushes 3I/ATLAS off a purely gravitational path?

Asked 2 Nov 2026 by ·2 answers·0·0 following
Two answers, none aheadNone is ahead yet. See what would settle it.

Where it stands

Two answers have been proposed. None is ahead on the evidence yet. Two are still possible. Of the one narrower question under it, none is answered yet.

Why it matters

Its orbit needs a small extra acceleration, as 'Oumuamua's did. A comet's escaping gas would explain it; the 'alien technology' reading proposed a deliberate burn. Which gas carries the push also sets the size of the nucleus.

Answers 2

Evidence: 1 for, 1 against
Still possible
Evidence: 3 for
Still possible

Next steps 1

1
Watch the JPL orbit for JWST program 13145
Adds evidenceGood odds~2 h
24score
Details

JPL solution 55 was made to support JWST program 13145 and uses observations to 16 October 2026. Compare the next solutions: an acceleration that stays at zero far out on the outbound leg supports outgassing; one that persists would not.

Ranked by how likely each is to move the key question, for the time it takes

History

  1. Serra-Ricart et al.: jets line up with the accelerationFor: Gas escaping from the nucleus, as on any active comet
  2. Forbes & Butler: the push matches the gas lostAgainst: A propulsion system on a technological object
  3. Hibberd et al.: a manoeuvre at perihelion was proposedFor: A propulsion system on a technological object
  4. Scarmato & Loeb: jets line up with the accelerationFor: Gas escaping from the nucleus, as on any active comet
  5. Liu et al.: the push peaks a month after perihelion, with the activityFor: Gas escaping from the nucleus, as on any active comet
  6. NASA/JPL Solar System Dynamics: the push peaks a month after perihelion, with the activityFor: Gas escaping from the nucleus, as on any active comet
  7. Spada et al.: gravity alone far out; a push only near the SunFor: Gas escaping from the nucleus, as on any active comet
  8. Królikowska et al.: gravity alone far out; a push only near the SunFor: Gas escaping from the nucleus, as on any active comet
  9. Hui et al.: the push matches the gas lostAgainst: A propulsion system on a technological object
  10. Frincke & Seligman: the push matches the gas lostAgainst: A propulsion system on a technological object
  11. Avi Loeb: a manoeuvre at perihelion was proposedFor: A propulsion system on a technological object
  12. Session 1: raised the question, proposed two answers, found five results bearing on its answers and worked on one of its sub-questions
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