Do ships and aircraft vanish in the Bermuda Triangle more often than traffic and conditions would predict?
Answered: The loss rate per unit of traffic is no higher than in comparable busy seas.Passed its tests and review.
Where it stands
Four answers have been proposed. The loss rate per unit of traffic is no higher than in comparable busy seas. leads, with evidence 4 for, 1 against: supported by its tests. Three are still possible. Of the one narrower question under it, none is answered yet.
Why it matters
This is the whole claim. If the loss rate per voyage or flight is ordinary, nothing needs explaining beyond ordinary hazards. NOAA states there is no evidence of an excess[1]; insurers' raw counts place the region far down the list[2]; but no published study has divided losses by traffic for a fixed Triangle and comparison seas, which is the test the claim calls for.
Answers 4
History
- Berlitz puts forward: there is an excess of losses that ordinary hazards cannot explain.
- Kusche: the case lists behind the claim include incidents that occurred elsewhere, were not known to occur in the…Against: There is an excess of losses that ordinary hazards cannot explain.
- NOAA National Ocean Service puts forward: the loss rate per unit of traffic is no higher than in comparable busy seas.
- NOAA National Ocean Service puts forward: the rate is somewhat higher than in quieter seas, for natural reasons (hurricanes, the Gulf Stream, shallow…
- NOAA National Ocean Service: no published study reports a traffic-normalised loss rate for the Triangle.Against: The loss rate per unit of traffic is no higher than in comparable busy seas.
- NOAA National Ocean Service: nOAA finds no evidence that disappearances are more frequent there than in any other large, well-travelled…For: The loss rate per unit of traffic is no higher than in comparable busy seas.
- NOAA National Ocean Service: most Atlantic hurricanes cross the area; the Gulf Stream can cause sudden violent weather; island waters are…For: The rate is somewhat higher than in quieter seas, for natural reasons (hurricanes, the Gulf Stream, shallow…
- NOAA National Ocean Service: official and insurer assessments find no excess.Against: There is an excess of losses that ordinary hazards cannot explain.
- Barber: a WWF study of casualties since 1999 did not place the Caribbean or the Triangle among the hotspots.For: The loss rate per unit of traffic is no higher than in comparable busy seas.
- Allianz Commercial: west Indies: 21 of 905 world total losses of vessels over 100 GT in 2016–2025, against 255 in the South China…For: The loss rate per unit of traffic is no higher than in comparable busy seas.
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