Where is the wreckage?
Most likely: close to the seventh arc (within about 25 nautical miles) in an unsearched stretch north of about 33°SAhead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.
Where it stands
Five answers have been proposed. Close to the seventh arc (within about 25 nautical miles) in an unsearched stretch north of about 33°S. leads, with evidence 2 for, 1 against: partly supported by its tests. Four are still possible. Of the two narrower questions under it, none is answered yet.
Why it matters
Every other question waits on this one. The recorders and the wreckage pattern would show what happened in the cockpit and at the end of flight[1]. The satellite data confine the end to a band along the seventh arc; the searched stretches are known; the question is which unsearched stretch, and how far from the arc[2][1].
Answers 5
History
- Ashton et al. puts forward: not on the southern arc at all (northern route, or a site unrelated to the Inmarsat analysis).
- Ashton et al.: the BFO method was validated on other aircraft flying known routes that night.Against: Not on the southern arc at all (northern route, or a site unrelated to the Inmarsat analysis).
- Griffin et al. puts forward: close to the seventh arc (within about 25 nautical miles) in an unsearched stretch north of about 33°S.
- Australian Transport Safety Bureau puts forward: beyond the searched band, because the aircraft was flown or glided after fuel exhaustion.
- Australian Transport Safety Bureau puts forward: within an area already searched, missed by the sonar coverage or terrain.
- Australian Transport Safety Bureau: about 240,000 km² along the arc, from about 39°S to 33°S, has been searched to high confidence with nothing…Against: Close to the seventh arc (within about 25 nautical miles) in an unsearched stretch north of about 33°S.
- Australian Transport Safety Bureau: the final two handshakes indicate fuel exhaustion and a rapid descent, consistent with a crash near the arc.For: Close to the seventh arc (within about 25 nautical miles) in an unsearched stretch north of about 33°S.
- Australian Transport Safety Bureau: the flap examination found the flaps were not extended at separation, which argues against a flaps-down…Against: Beyond the searched band, because the aircraft was flown or glided after fuel exhaustion.
- Australian Transport Safety Bureau: the 08:19 BFO values imply a high and increasing rate of descent.Against: Beyond the searched band, because the aircraft was flown or glided after fuel exhaustion.
- Australian Transport Safety Bureau: the flaperon's trailing-edge damage has been read by some as consistent with a low-speed water entry.For: Beyond the searched band, because the aircraft was flown or glided after fuel exhaustion.
- Australian Transport Safety Bureau: the ATSB reported the 120,000 km² area cleared to high confidence, with data gaps catalogued and most…Against: Within an area already searched, missed by the sonar coverage or terrain.
- Griffin et al.: debris finds on Réunion, Mozambique, Tanzania and Madagascar are consistent with drift from the southern…Against: Not on the southern arc at all (northern route, or a site unrelated to the Inmarsat analysis).
- Asked on this site