Evidence · Marconi scientists' deaths, 1982–1990
The lists hold a quarter of the suicides and open verdicts expected among GEC's UK graduates alone
The lists name 8 GEC employees who died by suicide, open verdict or asphyxia in 1982–1990, against about 32 expected among GEC's 17,500 UK science and engineering graduates at England and Wales rates (ratio 0.25, 95% interval 0.11–0.50; 0.51 at half the rate) and about 161 expected among all 126,600 GEC UK employees (ratio 0.05).
What it means
Key questionWere there more deaths among British defence scientists and engineers in 1982–1990 than ordinary death rates would produce?
2 answers, none ahead yet
Openunchanged
Answer this evidence bears onNo excess: the listed deaths are fewer than ordinary rates predict
Supports1 for, none against
Still possiblewas No evidence yet
What it implies
- The deaths on the lists need no cause beyond ordinary suicide and accident rates in a workforce of this size.For the key question: Were there more deaths among British defence scientists and engineers in 1982–1990 than ordinary death rates would produce?
- A common cause would have to be shown case by case; the count alone is no evidence of one.For: Did any of the deaths share a common cause, such as killings by an intelligence service?
Next steps 1
1
Check rates for professional men in the 1979–83 OPCS occupational mortality supplement
Adds evidenceGood odds~3 h
22score
Details
Replace the 0.5 multiplier with the published suicide SMR for scientists and engineers (OPCS Decennial Supplement on occupational mortality). Only a multiplier below about 0.25 would bring the graduate ratio up to 1.
Ranked by how likely each is to move the key question, for the time it takes
How it was found 1 run
Result. The lists name 8 GEC employees who died by suicide, open verdict or asphyxia in 1982–1990; ordinary rates predict about 32 such deaths among GEC's UK graduates alone and about 161 among all its UK staff. The cluster is a sample of ordinary deaths, not an excess over them.
Test · estimate [95% interval]Against the null and the answersVerdict
Listed GEC suicides and open verdicts / expected among GEC UK science and engineering graduates, 1982–1990ratio · against the two answers
+0.25 [+0.05, +0.45]
Excludes “excess”consistent with “no excess”
Same, at half the population rate (allowing for lower suicide rates among professionals)ratio · against the two answers
+0.51 [+0.12, +0.90]
Excludes “excess”consistent with “no excess”
Listed GEC suicides and open verdicts / expected among all GEC UK employeesratio · against the two answers
+0.05 [+0.01, +0.09]
Excludes “excess”consistent with “no excess”
All listed defence-worker suicides and open verdicts (15) / expected among UK industry directly employed on MoD workratio · against the two answers
+0.04 [+0.01, +0.07]
Excludes “excess”but differs from GEC graduates by 2.1σ
Estimate, 68% interval (thick) and 95% (thin). Rule declared with the run: rule out 'excess' if the 95% interval lies below 1; rule out 'no excess' if it lies above 1
Figure 1
Ordinary suicide rates predict far more deaths than the lists contain
Suicides and open verdicts, 1982–1990: expected at England and Wales rates (ages 20–64) for three workforces, against those on the published lists
ExpectedOn the lists
Drawn by the site with Base-rate test of the Marconi cluster, 1982–1990
Notes from the run
Deterministic; the seed is unused.
Across the evidence every measurement of the same quantity
Listed suicides and open verdicts among GEC's UK staff, 1982–1990, as a ratio to the number expected from England and Wa4 measurements
Pooled+0.0 [+0.0, +0.1]
Disagreement (I²)70%
Against the answers“excess” excluded
Every measurement excludes “excess”, so it is ruled out whichever is right. They disagree with each other.
Sources 3
SRC
SRC
Cite it
Mysteries Department. (2026). The lists hold a quarter of the suicides and open verdicts expected among GEC's UK graduates alone [Evidence EVD0DGGC25H2Q8T]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DGGC25H2Q8T
@misc{mysteriesdept_evd0dggc25h2q8t,
title = {The lists hold a quarter of the suicides and open verdicts expected among GEC's UK graduates alone},
author = {{Mysteries Department}},
year = {2026},
note = {Evidence, catalog key EVD0DGGC25H2Q8T},
url = {https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DGGC25H2Q8T}
}