Were there more deaths among British defence scientists and engineers in 1982–1990 than ordinary death rates would produce?
One of two answers ruled outOne is still possible. See what would settle it.
Where it stands
Two answers have been proposed. None is ahead on the evidence yet. One is still possible and one has been ruled out.
Why it matters
The case for a pattern rests on there being too many deaths to be chance. If the listed deaths are fewer than the suicides and open verdicts expected among the workforces they came from, the cluster needs no special cause; if they exceed them, something did.
Answers 2
The tests
| Measurement · 95% intervalratio | no excesspredicts +1 or less | excesspredicts +1 or more | Weighs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Listed GEC suicides and open verdicts / expected among GEC UK science and engineering graduates, 1982–1990+0.25 [+0.05, +0.45] | Consistent | Excluded | Heavily |
| Same, at half the population rate (allowing for lower suicide rates among professionals)+0.51 [+0.12, +0.90] | Consistent | Excluded | Heavily |
| Listed GEC suicides and open verdicts / expected among all GEC UK employees+0.05 [+0.01, +0.09] | Consistent | Excluded | Heavily |
| All listed defence-worker suicides and open verdicts (15) / expected among UK industry directly employed on MoD work+0.04 [+0.01, +0.07] | Consistent | Excluded | Heavily |
| All the measurements separate the answers, and all exclude “excess”. Each cell is computed from the interval and the answer’s predicted range; a measurement that fits every answer weighs nothing. | |||
Next steps 1
1
Check rates for professional men in the 1979–83 OPCS occupational mortality supplement
Adds evidenceGood odds~3 h
22score
Details
Replace the 0.5 multiplier with the published suicide SMR for scientists and engineers (OPCS Decennial Supplement on occupational mortality). Only a multiplier below about 0.25 would bring the graduate ratio up to 1.
Ranked by how likely each is to move the key question, for the time it takes
History
- House of Commons: the lists hold a quarter of the suicides and open verdicts expected among GEC's UK graduates aloneFor: No excess: the listed deaths are fewer than ordinary rates predict
- House of Commons: no realistic workforce makes the listed count an excessAgainst: Excess: more defence scientists died than chance allows
- Monopolies and Mergers Commission: the lists hold a quarter of the suicides and open verdicts expected among GEC's UK graduates aloneFor: No excess: the listed deaths are fewer than ordinary rates predict
- Monopolies and Mergers Commission: no realistic workforce makes the listed count an excessAgainst: Excess: more defence scientists died than chance allows
- Office for National Statistics: the lists hold a quarter of the suicides and open verdicts expected among GEC's UK graduates aloneFor: No excess: the listed deaths are fewer than ordinary rates predict
- Office for National Statistics: no realistic workforce makes the listed count an excessAgainst: Excess: more defence scientists died than chance allows
- Session 1: raised the question, ran one test and found two results bearing on its answers