Run · Marconi scientists' deaths, 1982–1990
Base-rate test of the Marconi cluster, 1982–1990
Deterministic; the seed is unused.
Result
Result. The lists name 8 GEC employees who died by suicide, open verdict or asphyxia in 1982–1990; ordinary rates predict about 32 such deaths among GEC's UK graduates alone and about 161 among all its UK staff. The cluster is a sample of ordinary deaths, not an excess over them.
Test · estimate [95% interval]Against the null and the answersVerdict
Listed GEC suicides and open verdicts / expected among GEC UK science and engineering graduates, 1982–1990ratio · against the two answers
+0.25 [+0.05, +0.45]
Excludes “excess”consistent with “no excess”
Same, at half the population rate (allowing for lower suicide rates among professionals)ratio · against the two answers
+0.51 [+0.12, +0.90]
Excludes “excess”consistent with “no excess”
Listed GEC suicides and open verdicts / expected among all GEC UK employeesratio · against the two answers
+0.05 [+0.01, +0.09]
Excludes “excess”consistent with “no excess”
All listed defence-worker suicides and open verdicts (15) / expected among UK industry directly employed on MoD workratio · against the two answers
+0.04 [+0.01, +0.07]
Excludes “excess”but differs from GEC graduates by 2.1σ
Estimate, 68% interval (thick) and 95% (thin). Rule declared with the run: rule out 'excess' if the 95% interval lies below 1; rule out 'no excess' if it lies above 1
Across the evidence every measurement of the same quantity
Listed suicides and open verdicts among GEC's UK staff, 1982–1990, as a ratio to the number expected from England and Wa4 measurements
Pooled+0.0 [+0.0, +0.1]
Disagreement (I²)70%
Against the answers“excess” excluded
Every measurement excludes “excess”, so it is ruled out whichever is right. They disagree with each other.
What it used and found
Figures 1
Figure 1
Ordinary suicide rates predict far more deaths than the lists contain
Suicides and open verdicts, 1982–1990: expected at England and Wales rates (ages 20–64) for three workforces, against those on the published lists
ExpectedOn the lists
Drawn by the site
Parameters
ages = 20-64, years = 1982-1990, counted = ['suicide', 'open verdict', 'accidental asphyxia'], populations = {'GEC UK employees': 126623, 'GEC UK science and engineering graduates': 17500, 'UK industry directly employed on MoD work': 285000}, rate_multipliers = [1, 0.5]Cite it
Mysteries Department. (2026). Base-rate test of the Marconi cluster, 1982–1990 [Run RUN0DGGDGRHYP78]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/RUN0DGGDGRHYP78
@misc{mysteriesdept_run0dggdgrhyp78,
title = {Base-rate test of the Marconi cluster, 1982–1990},
author = {{Mysteries Department}},
year = {2026},
note = {Run, catalog key RUN0DGGDGRHYP78},
url = {https://mysteriesdept.com/r/RUN0DGGDGRHYP78}
}