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Where did the Electra come down?

Asked 26 Oct 2026 by ·4 answers·0·0 following
Most likely: it ran out of fuel and ditched at sea within about a hundred miles of Howland, and sankAhead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.

Where it stands

Four answers have been proposed. It ran out of fuel and ditched at sea within about a hundred miles of Howland, and sank. leads, with evidence 2 for, 2 against: partly supported by its tests. Three are still possible. Of the one narrower question under it, none is answered yet.

Why it matters

The last confirmed message puts the aircraft near Howland with fuel running low; everything after it is inference⁠[1]. The three readings predict wreckage in three different places, two of which have been partly searched⁠[2]⁠[3].

Answers 4

Evidence: 2 for, 2 against
Most likely
Evidence: 3 against
Disputed
Evidence: 2 for, 5 against
Disputed
None of these.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible

History

  1. Lambrecht: colorado's aircraft saw signs of habitation but no aircraft and no one signalling on 9 July 1937.Against: It landed on the reef flat of Gardner Island (Nikumaroro); the crew transmitted for several nights, the…
  2. Gallagher: a partial skeleton, a sextant box and a woman's shoe part were found on the island in 1940.For: It landed on the reef flat of Gardner Island (Nikumaroro); the crew transmitted for several nights, the…
  3. Cross & Wright: cross and Wright (2015) found Hoodless's first-hand male identification more robust than later re-analyses.Against: It landed on the reef flat of Gardner Island (Nikumaroro); the crew transmitted for several nights, the…
  4. National Geographic: the 2017 photograph offered as proof was published in a 1935 travel book.Against: It came down in the Marshall Islands and the crew were taken by the Japanese to Saipan.
  5. Jantz: jantz (2018) found the 1941 bone measurements closer to Earhart than to 99 per cent of a reference sample.For: It landed on the reef flat of Gardner Island (Nikumaroro); the crew transmitted for several nights, the…
  6. The New York Times: ballard's 2019 survey of the reef slope and TIGHAR's own searches found no wreckage.Against: It landed on the reef flat of Gardner Island (Nikumaroro); the crew transmitted for several nights, the…
  7. TIGHAR puts forward: it came down in the Marshall Islands and the crew were taken by the Japanese to Saipan.
  8. UPI: about 3,610 square miles of seabed near Howland have been searched by sonar without result.Against: It ran out of fuel and ditched at sea within about a hundred miles of Howland, and sank.
  9. TIGHAR: the Navy's 1937 conclusion and the simplest reading of the radio log.For: It ran out of fuel and ditched at sea within about a hundred miles of Howland, and sank.
  10. TIGHAR: the island was inhabited 1938–1963, so artefacts at the Seven Site have other possible sources.Against: It landed on the reef flat of Gardner Island (Nikumaroro); the crew transmitted for several nights, the…
  11. TIGHAR: no document, wreckage or grave has been produced in sixty years of claims.Against: It came down in the Marshall Islands and the crew were taken by the Japanese to Saipan.
  12. Purdue University News: the Taraia Object, the latest candidate, proved to be trees (October 2026).Against: It landed on the reef flat of Gardner Island (Nikumaroro); the crew transmitted for several nights, the…
  13. Asked on this site
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