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How much energy did the explosion release?

Asked 26 Oct 2026 by ·Part of What kind of body, if any, caused the Tunguska explosion?·3 answers·0·0 following
Most likely: about 10–15 Mt (range 10–40 Mt), from barograms, seismograms and forest damage scaled to nuclear testsAhead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.

Where it stands

Three answers have been proposed. About 10–15 Mt (range 10–40 Mt), from barograms, seismograms and forest damage scaled to nuclear tests. leads, with evidence 2 for: supported by its tests. Two are still possible.

Why it matters

The energy sets the size of the body and the frequency of such events; estimates differ by a factor of three or more depending on method⁠[1]⁠[2].

Answers 3

Evidence: 2 for
Most likely
Evidence: 1 for, 1 against
Most likely
None of these.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible

History

  1. Ben-Menahem: seismic analysis at four stations gives a consistent source.For: About 10–15 Mt (range 10–40 Mt), from barograms, seismograms and forest damage scaled to nuclear tests.
  2. Vasilyev puts forward: about 10–15 Mt (range 10–40 Mt), from barograms, seismograms and forest damage scaled to nuclear tests.
  3. Boslough & Crawford puts forward: about 3–5 Mt, because the downward momentum of the fireball focused damage on the ground.
  4. Boslough & Crawford: hydrocode simulations including the fireball's momentum give 3–5 Mt.For: About 3–5 Mt, because the downward momentum of the fireball focused damage on the ground.
  5. Robertson & Mathias: tree-resistance modelling suggests about 10 Mt is most likely.For: About 10–15 Mt (range 10–40 Mt), from barograms, seismograms and forest damage scaled to nuclear tests.
  6. Robertson & Mathias: tree-resistance modelling finds 3 Mt a lower bound rather than a best estimate.Against: About 3–5 Mt, because the downward momentum of the fireball focused damage on the ground.
  7. Asked on this site
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