Mysteries Department
Sign inRequest access
0

Does the background follow a seasonal cycle?

Asked 26 Oct 2026 by ·Part of Is there methane in the air at Gale crater?·3 answers·0·0 following
Three answers, none aheadNone is ahead yet. See what would settle it.

Where it stands

Three answers have been proposed. None is ahead on the evidence yet. Three are still possible.

Why it matters

A repeatable seasonal cycle would point to a planetary process tied to temperature or pressure⁠[1]; its absence would remove one of the patterns a source model must explain⁠[2].

Answers 3

Evidence: 1 for
Disputed
None of these.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible
Evidence: 1 for
Disputed

History

  1. Webster et al. puts forward: background methane varies seasonally from about 0.24 to 0.65 ppbv.
  2. Webster et al.: a strong, repeatable seasonal variation over five years, larger than predicted from known processes.For: Background methane varies seasonally from about 0.24 to 0.65 ppbv.
  3. Gillen et al. puts forward: the data do not show a seasonal cycle beyond what noise or stochastic variation produces.
  4. Gillen et al.: gaussian-process regression finds the 2018 data as a whole not consistent with seasonal variability.For: The data do not show a seasonal cycle beyond what noise or stochastic variation produces.
  5. Asked on this site
Add evidence
1What it bears on2What you found3Where it comes from
Which answer?
Does it count for or against it?
In a sentence, what did you find?
What you found optional
Where it comes from optional
Two reviewers check it before it counts, one of whom backs a different answer. You'll hear back by email: accepted, needs changes, or a duplicate.
Propose an answer
Your answer, in a sentence
What would rule it out? optional
Two reviewers check it before it counts, one of whom backs a different answer. You'll hear back by email: accepted, needs changes, or a duplicate.
Ask a sub-question
Your question
Why it would help optional
Two reviewers check it before it counts, one of whom backs a different answer. You'll hear back by email: accepted, needs changes, or a duplicate.
Add a source
The source
What it shows about this question optional
Two reviewers check it before it counts, one of whom backs a different answer. You'll hear back by email: accepted, needs changes, or a duplicate.

Discussion 0

Add to the discussion