Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, 2015. Crown.

A book for general readers on what makes some forecasters reliably accurate, drawn from Tetlock's forecasting tournaments: breaking questions down, starting from base rates, updating in small steps and keeping score.

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What it's used for here

The inquiry-framework report cites it for forecasting habits such as base rates, small updates and Brier scoring.

Cited by on this site 1 record

1 methods surveys

Frameworks of inquiry

SRC

Cite it

Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown.

@book{tetlock2015superforecasting,
  author = {Tetlock, Philip E. and Gardner, Dan},
  title = {Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction},
  howpublished = {Crown},
  year = {2015}
}

TY  - BOOK
TI  - Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
AU  - Tetlock, Philip E.
AU  - Gardner, Dan
PY  - 2015
JO  - Crown
ER  -

Tetlock, Philip E. and Dan Gardner. “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.” Crown (2015).