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Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
Barbara Mellers, Lyle Ungar, Jonathan Baron et al., 2014. Psychological Science.
Reports one team's work in a two-year geopolitical forecasting tournament, finding that probability training, working in teams and tracking the best forecasters each improved accuracy.
What it's used for here
The inquiry-framework report draws on it in its section on forecasting and calibration.
Cited by on this site 1 record
1 methods surveys
SRCFrameworks of inquiry
Cite it
Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gurcay, B., Fincher, K., Scott, S. E., Moore, D., Atanasov, P., Swift, S. A., Murray, T., Stone, E., & Tetlock, P. E. (2014). Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament. Psychological Science. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614524255
@article{mellers2014psychological,
author = {Mellers, Barbara and Ungar, Lyle and Baron, Jonathan and Ramos, Jaime and Gurcay, Burcu and Fincher, Katrina and Scott, Sydney E. and Moore, Don and Atanasov, Pavel and Swift, Samuel A. and Murray, Terry and Stone, Eric and Tetlock, Philip E.},
title = {Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament},
journal = {Psychological Science},
year = {2014},
doi = {10.1177/0956797614524255},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614524255}
}TY - JOUR TI - Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament AU - Mellers, Barbara AU - Ungar, Lyle AU - Baron, Jonathan AU - Ramos, Jaime AU - Gurcay, Burcu AU - Fincher, Katrina AU - Scott, Sydney E. AU - Moore, Don AU - Atanasov, Pavel AU - Swift, Samuel A. AU - Murray, Terry AU - Stone, Eric AU - Tetlock, Philip E. PY - 2014 JO - Psychological Science DO - 10.1177/0956797614524255 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614524255 ER -
Mellers, Barbara et al.. “Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament.” Psychological Science (2014). https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614524255.