Voynich Manuscript/Answer/ANS0D8FZY544WRM

Predictive information reaches beyond the word: a model that sees more of the preceding…

Ruled out failed its test

Predictive information reaches beyond the word: a model that sees more of the preceding text predicts the next unit better, on sheets it was not trained on, as it does in languages.

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data/analysis/framework/out/context_scaling.csv

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answers	How was the text produced on the page?	QST08JG6BH02GE7
neutral (from)	Glyph entropy is lower than in any of 103 languages	EVD0D8GDKDA0QEB
tests (from)	Held-out context scaling (Kneser-Ney orders 1-8): held-out bits/glyph at order 1,2,4,6,8	RUN0D8EPQHT3KCM
tests (from)	Held-out context scaling (Kneser-Ney orders 1-8): held-out bits/glyph at order 1,2,4,6,8	RUN0D8EPS0P7D1Q

Kind: hypothesis
Stage: tested
Tests: ["T13-context-scaling"]
Family: STRUCT
Origin: deductive
Result: Glyph units, Kneser-Ney, trained on the training quires and scored on the held-out quires: 3.89 bits at order 1, 2.44 at order 2, 2.24 at order 4 (the minimum), 2.50 at order 8; the gain from order 2 to the best order is 0.20 bits, against 1.42 (Latin), 1.19 (Italian), 1.27 (German), 0.97 (Hebrew). Words: 10.87 bits at order 1 and 11.02 at order 2 - the previous word makes the held-out prediction worse - against gains of 0.3 to 1.2 bits in eight languages. The lines-shuffled surrogate is slightly more predictable than the text at every order because the split is then no longer by quire.
Predictions: ["held-out bits per glyph keep falling as the model\u0027s context grows past one word (order 6-8); held-out bits per word fall when the previous word is known (order 2 beats order 1)", "by an amount inside the language range"]
Ledger status: not-supported

In the research Session 6: Phase 2: registered tests, brute force, five surveys; book v1.1Proposed

History

v1 · 25 Oct 2026 · Voynich Manuscript: sync from the research ledger

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