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If it was a test, who conducted it?

Asked 26 Oct 2026 by ·4 answers·0·0 following
Most likely: israel, possibly with South African help or territoryAhead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.

Where it stands

Four answers have been proposed. Israel, possibly with South African help or territory. leads, with evidence 2 for, 1 against: partly supported by its tests. Three are still possible.

Why it matters

Attribution has been the political core of the case from the first weeks⁠[1]⁠[2].

Answers 4

Evidence: 2 for, 1 against
Most likely
Another state, such as a covert Soviet test.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: 1 for
Still possible
None of these.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible
South Africa alone.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible

History

  1. Director of Central Intelligence puts forward: israel, possibly with South African help or territory.
  2. Director of Central Intelligence puts forward: south Africa alone.
  3. Director of Central Intelligence puts forward: another state, such as a covert Soviet test.
  4. Director of Central Intelligence: the DCI assessment noted the DIA's suggestion that the Soviet Union might have had reasons for a covert test.For: Another state, such as a covert Soviet test.
  5. Burr & Cohen: israel gave the United States categorical denials of nuclear-weapons cooperation with South Africa in 1977.Against: Israel, possibly with South African help or territory.
  6. Burr & Cohen: the 2016 editors judge an Israeli test, possibly with South African assistance, the more likely reading.For: Israel, possibly with South African help or territory.
  7. Cohen & Burr: carter recorded in February 1980 a growing belief among US scientists that Israel had tested.For: Israel, possibly with South African help or territory.
  8. Asked on this site
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