Was the signal of 22 September 1979 a nuclear explosion?
Most likely: a low-yield atmospheric nuclear test of a few kilotons, near the ocean surfaceAhead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.
Where it stands
Four answers have been proposed. A low-yield atmospheric nuclear test of a few kilotons, near the ocean surface. leads, with evidence 5 for, 2 against: supported by its tests. Three are still possible. Of the two narrower questions under it, none is answered yet.
Why it matters
If it was, a state tested a nuclear weapon in violation of the Partial Test Ban Treaty and the test was never acknowledged; if not, the most trusted nuclear-detection system of its day produced a false alarm that matched its design signature[1][2]. The official finding and most of the technical studies disagree[2][3].
Answers 4
History
- Dodson puts forward: a low-yield atmospheric nuclear test of a few kilotons, near the ocean surface.
- Dodson: the NSC recorded the Intelligence Community's high confidence in a low-yield explosion on 22 October 1979.For: A low-yield atmospheric nuclear test of a few kilotons, near the ocean surface.
- Office of Science and Technology Policy (panel chaired by Jack Ruina) puts forward: a small meteoroid struck the satellite and sunlight reflected from the ejected debris into the bhangmeters.
- Office of Science and Technology Policy (panel chaired by Jack Ruina) puts forward: a malfunction or unexplained false signal of an aged satellite, unrelated to any explosion.
- Horak: defense Support Program satellites with overlapping coverage did not trigger.Against: A low-yield atmospheric nuclear test of a few kilotons, near the ocean surface.
- Mauth: los Alamos and Sandia analysts judged the signal consistent with a low-yield atmospheric burst.For: A low-yield atmospheric nuclear test of a few kilotons, near the ocean surface.
- Wright & De Geer: the first pulses of both bhangmeters agree with each other and with earlier tests; the second-pulse…For: A low-yield atmospheric nuclear test of a few kilotons, near the ocean surface.
- Wright & De Geer: given the satellite's geometry and solar panels, most impact debris would move away from the sensors' field…Against: A small meteoroid struck the satellite and sunlight reflected from the ejected debris into the bhangmeters.
- Wright & De Geer: laser calibration tests showed the bhangmeters operating nominally.Against: A malfunction or unexplained false signal of an aged satellite, unrelated to any explosion.
- Wright & De Geer: vela 6911 had a memory fault from 1972 to 1978 and was beyond its design life.For: A malfunction or unexplained false signal of an aged satellite, unrelated to any explosion.
- De Geer & Wright: ascension hydrophones recorded an impulsive signal at 02:43 UTC on a bearing and path consistent with an…For: A low-yield atmospheric nuclear test of a few kilotons, near the ocean surface.
- De Geer & Wright: the first pulse of Alert 747 is inconsistent with the few hundred unexplained signals from which the panel…Against: A malfunction or unexplained false signal of an aged satellite, unrelated to any explosion.
- Asked on this site