Did anything happen at the ranch between 1994 and 2010 that ordinary causes cannot explain?
Most likely: the reports grew from ordinary events and misperception in a place with a reputation, amplified by the people…Ahead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.
Where it stands
Five answers have been proposed. The reports grew from ordinary events and misperception in a place with a reputation, amplified by the people… leads, with evidence 5 for, 1 against: partly supported by its tests. Four are still possible. Of the one narrower question under it, none is answered yet.
Why it matters
Everything else about the ranch, from the $22 million DIA contract to the television series, rests on the premise that the reports describe real anomalous events[1][2]. If the reports can be accounted for by predators, aircraft, meteors, misperception and storytelling, the ranch is a case study in how a reputation grows, not a mystery of nature[3].
Answers 5
History
- Salisbury: the Basin had a large UFO sighting literature from the 1950s onward, long before the ranch.For: The reports grew from ordinary events and misperception in a place with a reputation, amplified by the people…
- Van Eyck: several of the most dramatic Sherman episodes, including the wolf, are absent from the 1996 press accounts…For: The reports grew from ordinary events and misperception in a place with a reputation, amplified by the people…
- Las Vegas Sun staff: the sale to Bigelow followed within months of the press account, to a buyer seeking such a site.For: The reports grew from ordinary events and misperception in a place with a reputation, amplified by the people…
- Van Eyck: the 1996 account was given to a newspaper, with names, before any buyer appeared.Against: The founding accounts were invented or deliberately embellished for gain.
- Van Eyck: the Shermans said they lost money on the sale to Bigelow.Against: The founding accounts were invented or deliberately embellished for gain.
- Van Eyck: seven months after NIDS arrived its spokesman said there had been minor observations but nothing he would…Against: A real phenomenon, not yet understood, acts on people, animals and instruments at the site.
- Sheaffer: the Shermans sold within months of going public and Terry Sherman was retained as caretaker.For: The founding accounts were invented or deliberately embellished for gain.
- Adams: the Fugal-era principal investigator lists portals and a sentient, precognitive, non-human intelligence among…For: A skinwalker of Navajo tradition, a portal to another dimension, or a precognitive non-human intelligence is…
- Lacatski et al.: the witnesses include trained scientists and a DIA analyst who report seeing things at close range.Against: The reports grew from ordinary events and misperception in a place with a reputation, amplified by the people…
- Lacatski et al.: the NIDS-period accounts were first published in 2005, up to nine years after the events; Lacatski's in 2021,…For: The reports grew from ordinary events and misperception in a place with a reputation, amplified by the people…
- Greenewald: the released AAWSAP contract documents and reports do not mention the ranch, and DIA's search for Lacatski's…Against: A real phenomenon, not yet understood, acts on people, animals and instruments at the site.
- Wikipedia contributors: nIDS's own hotline found most of more than 5,000 reports were missile launches and meteors.For: The reports grew from ordinary events and misperception in a place with a reputation, amplified by the people…
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