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Did the 1587–1589 drought contribute to the colony's fate?

Asked 26 Oct 2026 by ·Part of What happened to the colonists left on Roanoke Island in 1587?·3 answers·0·0 following
Most likely: yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed themAhead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted.

Where it stands

Three answers have been proposed. The drought is established but its effect on this colony cannot be shown from the present evidence. leads, with evidence 1 for: supported by its tests. Two are still possible.

Why it matters

The tree rings put the colonists' first years in the worst drought in eight centuries⁠[1], which would have hit their crops and their Native neighbours' surplus.

Answers 3

Evidence: 1 for
Most likely
Evidence: 2 for
Most likely
None of these.
Not tested enough to call either way
Evidence: none yet
Still possible

History

  1. Stahle et al. puts forward: yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed them.
  2. Stahle et al. puts forward: the drought is established but its effect on this colony cannot be shown from the present evidence.
  3. Stahle et al.: the most extreme drought in 800 years, 1587–1589.For: Yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed them.
  4. Stahle: at Jamestown, mortality tracks drought, with a correlation of −0.71 between percent mortality and…For: Yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed them.
  5. Stahle: roanoke mortality data in the NOAA file are only for the 1586 military colony.For: The drought is established but its effect on this colony cannot be shown from the present evidence.
  6. Asked on this site
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