Mysteries Department
Sign inRequest access
MethodsSimulation-based inferenceFifteenth-century cipher practices as one fitted family, per section
Method · simulation-based inference

Fifteenth-century cipher practices as one fitted family, per section

A simulator whose settings cover the hand-cipher practice of the period (homophones and how they are chosen, syllable signs, a nomenclator, scribal abbreviation, simplified spelling, dropped vowels, nulls made by copying, three spacing practices, positional sign forms, the line layer), fitted to one section's training pages by approximate Bayesian computation and checked on its held-out pages.

Simulation-based inferenceVersion 1.0Licence MIT2 runsUsed on 1 mystery

Questions it answers

Code Python

Runs and results 2 runs

RunMysteryMeasuredResultAgainstDate
RUN0DCB61357W4VVoynichPosterior share among the best 5 % (prior share in brackets), Herbal A / Herbal Bspacing stream 0.66 (0.35) / 0.48 (0.32), word 0.34 / 0.52, sign-as-word 0.00 / 0.00; nomenclator 400 words 0.44 (0.26) / 0.40 (0.26); no syllable signs 0.58 (0.34) / 0.48 (0.34); homophone column kept 98 % 0.32 (0.18) / 0.24 (0.18); copying nulls 30 % 0.56 (0.26) / 0.28 (0.24); vowels dropped 0.34 (0.24) / 0.54 (0.25)Prior shares · best distance 1.45 (Herbal A), 1.36 (Herbal B), median 2.2
RUN0DCBFDY3RWC2VoynichHeld-out statistics missed (|z| > 2, of 12), and of all 30 including fit and word-body statistics, on held-out pagesHerbal B best: 3 / 12 held-out, 9 / 30 all (stream spacing, no nomenclator, abbreviation, vowels dropped, simplified spelling, 3 homophones per vowel and 2 per consonant kept 95 % of the time, 15 % copied nulls, line layer 0.5). Herbal A best: 5 / 12, 15 / 30 (stream spacing, 50-word nomenclator, 1 homophone per vowel and 4 per consonant kept 90 %, simplified spelling, 30 % copied nulls, line layer 0.5)Naibbe family in the same sections (T38, fresh seeds): 5-10 / 12 · published Naibbe 9-12 / 12 · plain Latin 9-12 / 12

Applied to

2 datasetsLatin genre texts, ZL3b transcription
Private beta Downloads are for beta members

We're in a private beta while we get things right. Everything here is free to read; downloading datasets, sources and code is open to members for now.

It takes a couple of minutes. We'll reply by email.