# Mellers 2014: Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

> Barbara Mellers, Lyle Ungar, Jonathan Baron et al., 2014. 1 records on Mysteries Department cite it. The inquiry-framework report draws on it in its…

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[Sources](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources)[Voynich Manuscript](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/voynich-manuscript)Mellers 2014

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# Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

Barbara Mellers, Lyle Ungar, Jonathan Baron et al., 2014. _Psychological Science_.

Reports one team's work in a two-year geopolitical forecasting tournament, finding that probability training, working in teams and tracking the best forecasters each improved accuracy.

**Voynich Manuscript** Articledoi: **[10.1177/0956797614524255](https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614524255)** Checked against the original0

## What it's used for here

The inquiry-framework report draws on it in its section on forecasting and calibration.

## Cited by on this site 1 record

[1 methods surveys]

Frameworks of inquiry

SRC

## Cite it

```
Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gurcay, B., Fincher, K., Scott, S. E., Moore, D., Atanasov, P., Swift, S. A., Murray, T., Stone, E., & Tetlock, P. E. (2014). Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament. Psychological Science. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614524255
```

[Read it free at doi.org](https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614524255)

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**SRC** 0D8MS4ZR5TC8

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