# Manning 2023: Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 BC > Sturt W. Manning, Cindy Kocik, Brita Lorentzen et al., 2023. 23 records on Mysteries Department cite it. The annually resolved climate record at the… Source: https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0D4649224SDR/severe-multi-year-drought-coincident-with-hittite-collapse Publisher: Mysteries Department Licence: CC BY 4.0 (credit Mysteries Department and link the page) --- [Sources](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources)[Late Bronze Age collapse](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse)Manning 2023 **0** # Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 BC Sturt W. Manning, Cindy Kocik, Brita Lorentzen et al., 2023. _Nature 614, 719–724_. Ring-width and δ13C records from juniper timbers excavated at Gordion, about 230 km west of the Hittite capital, form a chronology of about 1775–748 (±3) BC from 23 samples of some 18 trees. Taking the lowest quarter of growth as dry years, the authors find dry years throughout but an unusually severe run of three consecutive dry years around 1198–1196 (±3) BC, which they argue could have overwhelmed storage and other risk-buffering practices. The paper notes that Hattusa was emptied by the royal administration and only later burnt. **Late Bronze Age collapse** Articledoi: **[10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y)** Checked against the original0 ## What it's used for here The annually resolved climate record at the centre of the drought argument. ## The document 24 pages [Pages][Text]Page 1 of 24 [![Page 1](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p1)1][![Page 2](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p2)2][![Page 3](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p3)3][![Page 4](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p4)4][![Page 5](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p5)5][![Page 6](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p6)6][![Page 7](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p7)7][![Page 8](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p8)8][![Page 9](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p9)9][![Page 10](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p10)10][![Page 11](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p11)11][![Page 12](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p12)12] ![Page 1 of Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 BC](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/v/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3/p1) The first 12 pages are shown; the rest are in the file. Text taken from the file. Check it against the page. ## Cited by on this site 23 records [Consecutive harvest failures in central Anatolia made the capital and its grain system unsustainable.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/answers/ANS0D464WK22BKN/consecutive-harvest-failures-in-central-anatolia-made-the) Answer ANS [The court moved away for political reasons, leaving the capital to decline.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/answers/ANS0D464Y9R7VSY/the-court-moved-away-for-political-reasons-leaving-the) Answer ANS [The decisive stress was short runs of extreme dry years, not the long trend.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/answers/ANS0D4651FA4A11/the-decisive-stress-was-short-runs-of-extreme-dry-years-not) Answer ANS [Juniper timbers from Gordion, including the Midas Mound tumulus](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/artifacts/ART0D4657JM3RQM/juniper-timbers-from-gordion-including-the-midas-mound) ART [Gordion juniper ring-width indices, δ13C series and drought-year tables (Manning et al. 2023)](https://mysteriesdept.com/datasets/DAT0D4654D237WW/gordion-juniper-ring-width-indices-13c-series-and-drought) Dataset DAT [Dry years occur regularly in the Gordion record; the run at 1198–1196 BC stands out.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/evidence/EVD0D4651Q459MY/dry-years-occur-regularly-in-the-gordion-record-the-run-at) Evidence EVD [Elements of the Hittite political system continued in the south-east and northern Syria, on a smaller scale.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/evidence/EVD0D464YHJ6T8F/elements-of-the-hittite-political-system-continued-in-the) Evidence EVD [Hattusa was emptied by its own administration and burned later, not destroyed by attack.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/evidence/EVD0D464RE86J28/hattusa-was-emptied-by-its-own-administration-and-burned) Evidence EVD [Investigations indicate the city was emptied by its administration and burned later.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/evidence/EVD0D464Y1Y6Y5Z/investigations-indicate-the-city-was-emptied-by-its) Evidence EVD [The Gordion tree rings show three consecutive severe dry years about 1198–1196 BC, shortly before the end of…](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/evidence/EVD0D464PFR4TJJ/the-gordion-tree-rings-show-three-consecutive-severe-dry) Evidence EVD [The Hittite state faced rivals, usurpers and breakaway regions throughout its history, and its capital was…](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/evidence/EVD0D464TCR1648/the-hittite-state-faced-rivals-usurpers-and-breakaway) Evidence EVD [Thirteenth-century texts on grain shortages lack detail and are read differently by different scholars.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/evidence/EVD0D464XAG5CSJ/thirteenth-century-texts-on-grain-shortages-lack-detail-and) Evidence EVD [Three consecutive severe dry years about 1198–1196 BC in the Gordion record, 230 km from Hattusa.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/evidence/EVD0D464WTW2GPD/three-consecutive-severe-dry-years-about-11981196-bc-in-the) Evidence EVD [Suppiluliuma II, the last recorded Hittite king, begins his reign](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/events/EVT0D464JTJ77WG/suppiluliuma-ii-the-last-recorded-hittite-king-begins-his) EVT [The Hittite administration abandons Hattusa, which is later burned](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/events/EVT0D464KA65THQ/the-hittite-administration-abandons-hattusa-which-is-later) EVT [Three consecutive severe dry years in the Gordion tree-ring record](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/events/EVT0D464K2C0YK9/three-consecutive-severe-dry-years-in-the-gordion-tree-ring) EVT [Sturt W. Manning](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/people/FIG0D464HVA6FJ9/sturt-w-manning) FIG [Suppiluliuma II](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/people/FIG0D464HBP6Z20/suppiluliuma-ii) FIG [The Late Bronze Age collapse](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse) The mystery article MYS [How severe and how widespread was the climate change around 1200 BC?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/questions/QST0D464NRA16TQ/how-severe-and-how-widespread-was-the-climate-change-around) Question QST [Were the destructions clustered in the years after the 1198–1196 BC drought, or spread over a century?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/questions/QST0D464N0W57P9/were-the-destructions-clustered-in-the-years-after-the) Question QST [What was the principal cause of the end of the Late Bronze Age palace system in the eastern Mediterranean?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/questions/QST0D464MS26SDY/what-was-the-principal-cause-of-the-end-of-the-late-bronze) Question QST [Why was Hattusa abandoned?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/bronze-age-collapse/questions/QST0D464N8P0FCE/why-was-hattusa-abandoned) Question QST ## Cite it ``` Manning, S. W., Kocik, C., Lorentzen, B., & Sparks, J. P. (2023). Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 BC. Nature 614, 719–724. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y ``` [Read it free at doi.org](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y)[Download PDF · 36 MB](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/d/5adfdcadc4e8581be58e9198c9fe795a4d9d5c2102ae7d5a3c82cb36050772e3) Anyone can read it here; members can download it. Key **SRC** 0D4649224SDR Kind Journal article Rights CC-BY-4.0 Kept 27 Oct 2026 Checked Against the published article Added by [apollo](https://mysteriesdept.com/u/apollo) The record Bibliographic records are CC0. Take this one as CSL-JSON, BibTeX or RIS. [CSL-JSON](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0D4649224SDR/severe-multi-year-drought-coincident-with-hittite-collapse/csl.json)