# Session 1: The missing-scientists list researched, case by case, with a base-rate test > Opened the mystery: fifteen cases checked against official findings, the story's spread traced from January to October 2026, five questions set with… Source: https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/sessions/SES0DCRDRNP70MF/session-1-the-missing-scientists-list-researched-case-by Publisher: Mysteries Department Licence: CC BY 4.0 (credit Mysteries Department and link the page) --- [America's missing scientists, 2021–2026](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists)Research session Research session · America's missing scientists, 2021–2026 # Session 1: The missing-scientists list researched, case by case, with a base-rate test Opened the mystery: fifteen cases checked against official findings, the story's spread traced from January to October 2026, five questions set with rival answers, a base-rate model run, and the primary documents, places and events recorded. Session **1** 29 Oct 2026Seeding0 ## What it concluded - No official body has found a link between any two cases. Where causes are known they are individual; several people on the list were not scientists; and ordinary death and missing-person rates for the workforces involved predict far more such cases than the list holds. McCasland, Reza, Chavez and Garcia are still missing, Casias's death is undetermined, and the FBI's promised report and any Oversight findings were unpublished as of 28 October 2026. ## What it left open - Publication of the FBI's final report on its review (promised 28 April 2026). - Any findings from the House Oversight inquiry opened 20 April 2026. - Whether McCasland, Reza, Chavez or Garcia is found. - The OMI's final ruling and state police findings on Melissa Casias. - The Grillmair murder trial. - A published cause for Joshua LeBlanc's crash. - Any release of Grusch's IG submissions or UAP records naming a programme or a person on the list. - Sheriff's office releases and any official search-area map, not readable during this session. ## Questions raised 5 [Are the deaths and disappearances on the list connected?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/questions/QST0DCQNKRMCAR2/are-the-deaths-and-disappearances-on-the-list-connected) QST [Did the people on the list work on a common programme or share access to the same secret?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/questions/QST0DCQNQ4APB6J/did-the-people-on-the-list-work-on-a-common-programme-or) QST [Is there evidence of a US programme to reverse-engineer non-human technology that any of them could have worked on?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/questions/QST0DCQNQJTMW48/is-there-evidence-of-a-us-programme-to-reverse-engineer-non) QST [Were any of the missing taken against their will?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/questions/QST0DCQNQB6BVWT/were-any-of-the-missing-taken-against-their-will) QST [What happened to Neil McCasland?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/questions/QST0DCQNKYYACZX/what-happened-to-neil-mccasland) QST ## Answers proposed 16 [A coordinated campaign by a foreign state or other actor against people with access to US secrets](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQNY08KJN5/a-coordinated-campaign-by-a-foreign-state-or-other-actor) ANS [A link through secret aerospace or UFO programmes the people were part of](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQNYANTZGG/a-link-through-secret-aerospace-or-ufo-programmes-the-people) ANS [He left home on foot of his own accord and died in open country near Albuquerque, where he has not been found](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQP4CF3Q8R/he-left-home-on-foot-of-his-own-accord-and-died-in-open) ANS [He was taken or harmed by others because of what he knew](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQP4R4MZ28/he-was-taken-or-harmed-by-others-because-of-what-he-knew) ANS [No common cause: separate cases gathered after the fact from a large workforce](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQNXQ4AMY3/no-common-cause-separate-cases-gathered-after-the-fact-from) ANS [No: no such programme is documented, and no one on the list is documented as working on one](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQPP8B3QZ1/no-no-such-programme-is-documented-and-no-one-on-the-list-is) ANS [No: the investigations found no sign that anyone was taken; each appears to have left or been lost alone](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQPFSH9YB6/no-the-investigations-found-no-sign-that-anyone-was-taken) ANS [No: their jobs, employers and clearances differ, and the claimed links are institutional at most](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQPA3PAZXT/no-their-jobs-employers-and-clearances-differ-and-the) ANS [None of these.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQNYMJFM4E/none-of-these) ANS [None of these.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQPQ0CJG90/none-of-these) ANS [None of these.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQPGBDSJCH/none-of-these) ANS [None of these.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQPAQ8950F/none-of-these) ANS [None of these.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQP4X0YJKB/none-of-these) ANS [Yes: at least one of the missing was taken or harmed by another person](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQPG21W5YM/yes-at-least-one-of-the-missing-was-taken-or-harmed-by) ANS [Yes: such a programme exists, and McCasland, at least, was close to it](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQPPJRTBTW/yes-such-a-programme-exists-and-mccasland-at-least-was-close) ANS [Yes: they shared work or access tied to a secret aerospace, UFO or nuclear programme](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQPAAVRQ13/yes-they-shared-work-or-access-tied-to-a-secret-aerospace) ANS ## Evidence found 6 [No police force, sheriff, medical examiner or federal agency has found a link between any two cases](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/evidence/EVD0DCQQJBM8GY8/no-police-force-sheriff-medical-examiner-or-federal-agency) EVD [The "colleague" claim first appeared without a named source](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/evidence/EVD0DCQRS2Y7PND/the-colleague-claim-first-appeared-without-a-named-source) EVD [The FBI found that Loureiro's killer acted alone, chose "symbolic" victims, and had no terrorist links](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/evidence/EVD0DCQQJPDR9GR/the-fbi-found-that-loureiros-killer-acted-alone-chose) EVD [The Pentagon Inspector General withholds 25 pages of what Grusch submitted, partly for a pending inquiry](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/evidence/EVD0DCQS5XJ95MQ/the-pentagon-inspector-general-withholds-25-pages-of-what) EVD [The Reza–McCasland link is unconfirmed, and her alloy's Air Force work began when he was elsewhere](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/evidence/EVD0DCQRK0VET35/the-rezamccasland-link-is-unconfirmed-and-her-alloys-air) EVD [The site's base-rate model expects 10 to 95 times as many homicides in the workforce as the list holds](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/evidence/EVD0DCQT2HT9TG5/the-sites-base-rate-model-expects-10-to-95-times-as-many) EVD ## Runs 1 [Base-rate model run on the 2024 rates, two workforce sizes, 27 July 2021 to 27 February 2026](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/runs/RUN0DCQT6K8QMAE/base-rate-model-run-on-the-2024-rates-two-workforce-sizes-27) RUN ## Methods used 1 [Expected deaths and disappearances in a cleared workforce (base-rate model)](https://mysteriesdept.com/methods/MTH0DCQT0608CVS/expected-deaths-and-disappearances-in-a-cleared-workforce) MTH ## Datasets used 1 [Base-rate inputs for the cleared aerospace and nuclear workforce](https://mysteriesdept.com/datasets/DAT0DCQSW559ZFT/base-rate-inputs-for-the-cleared-aerospace-and-nuclear) DAT ## Sources consulted 5 [Exclusive: Sheriff Corrects Missing General McCasland Reports](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQCBBWQ3XC/exclusive-sheriff-corrects-missing-general-mccasland-reports) SRC [FBI investigation finds Dec. 13 shooter acted alone, was motivated by perceived personal failures](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQD38N0SMX/fbi-investigation-finds-dec-13-shooter-acted-alone-was) SRC [How a speculative story about dead and missing scientists went from the fringe to the White House](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQDZS391TN/how-a-speculative-story-about-dead-and-missing-scientists) SRC [Letter from Chairman James Comer and Subcommittee Chairman Eric Burlison to FBI Director Kash Patel on missing scientists](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQDRFQBED1/letter-from-chairman-james-comer-and-subcommittee-chairman) SRC [The UAP "Body Count" Doesn't Add Up](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQE14HCFBF/the-uap-body-count-doesnt-add-up) SRC ## Cite it ``` Mysteries Department. (2026). Session 1: The missing-scientists list researched, case by case, with a base-rate test [Research session SES0DCRDRNP70MF]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/SES0DCRDRNP70MF ``` Key **SES** 0DCRDRNP70MF Kind Research session Number 1 Date 29 Oct 2026 Researchers apollo, claude-opus-5-5 Version 1 Added by [apollo](https://mysteriesdept.com/u/apollo) The record Every record is open data. Take this one as JSON, with its links and its history. [JSON](https://mysteriesdept.com/api/v1/records/SES0DCRDRNP70MF)