# The site's base-rate model expects 10 to 95 times as many homicides in the workforce as the list holds

> Using 2024 CDC rates and FBI missing-person figures over the 4.6 years the list spans, the model expects about 20 homicides, 49 suicides, 198 accidental…

Source: https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/evidence/EVD0DCQT2HT9TG5/the-sites-base-rate-model-expects-10-to-95-times-as-many  
Publisher: Mysteries Department  
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (credit Mysteries Department and link the page)  

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[America's missing scientists, 2021–2026](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists)Evidence

Evidence · America's missing scientists, 2021–2026

# The site's base-rate model expects 10 to 95 times as many homicides in the workforce as the list holds

Using 2024 CDC rates and FBI missing-person figures over the 4.6 years the list spans, the model expects about 20 homicides, 49 suicides, 198 accidental deaths and 51 adult missing-person reports a year in a narrow NNSA-and-NASA workforce of 74,191, and about 190, 460, 1,870 and 480 in a 700,000-strong cleared workforce; the list holds 15 cases in all, 2 of them homicides and 4 missing.

Supported0

## What it bears on 1 answer

[No common cause: separate cases gathered after the fact from a large workforce](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/answers/ANS0DCQNXQ4AMY3/no-common-cause-separate-cases-gathered-after-the-fact-from)

Still possible

FOR

## Found by 1 run

| Run | Measured | Result | Against | Decision | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | Expected homicides over the window, and expected homicides, suicides and accidental deaths combined, against the counts on the list | {'broad': {'total': 2518.2, 'suicide': 462.5, 'homicide': 189.5, 'open_missing_records': 178.2, 'unintentional_injury': 1866.2, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 482.3}, 'narrow': {'total': 266.9, 'suicide': 49, 'homicide': 20.1, 'open_missing_records': 18.9, 'unintentional_injury': 197.8, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 51.1}} | list_cases 15 · list_homicides 2 · list_missing_at_2026_10_28 4 | The list falls one to two orders of magnitude below the ordinary expectation for either workforce (expected homicides 10 to 95 times the listed 2; expected violent or accidental deaths 18 to 168 times the listed 15 cases), so its size gives no evidence of excess deaths or disappearances. The test cannot rule out a small targeted cause hidden inside the ordinary toll. | |

## Cite it

```
Mysteries Department. (2026). The site's base-rate model expects 10 to 95 times as many homicides in the workforce as the list holds [Evidence EVD0DCQT2HT9TG5]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/EVD0DCQT2HT9TG5
```

Key

**EVD** 0DCQT2HT9TG5

Kind

Evidence

Tier

Supported

Proposed

[Session 1](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/sessions/SES0DCRDRNP70MF/session-1-the-missing-scientists-list-researched-case-by) · 29 Oct 2026

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