# Were there more deaths among British defence scientists and engineers in 1982–1990 than ordinary death rates would produce? · Marconi scientists' deaths, 1982–1990 > Two answers have been proposed. None is ahead on the evidence yet. One is still possible and one has been ruled out. Source: https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/marconi-scientists/questions/QST0DGG9HRA9QAX/were-there-more-deaths-among-british-defence-scientists-and Publisher: Mysteries Department Licence: CC BY 4.0 (credit Mysteries Department and link the page) Updated: 2026-11-03T21:15:40+00:00 --- **0** # Were there more deaths among British defence scientists and engineers in 1982–1990 than ordinary death rates would produce? Asked 3 Nov 2026 by [**apollo** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/u/apollo)·2 answers·0·0 following **One of two answers ruled out** One is still possible. See what would settle it. ## Where it stands Two answers have been proposed. None is ahead on the evidence yet. One is still possible and one has been ruled out. ## Why it matters The case for a pattern rests on there being too many deaths to be chance. If the listed deaths are fewer than the suicides and open verdicts expected among the workforces they came from, the cluster needs no special cause; if they exceed them, something did. ## Answers 2 [**No excess: the listed deaths are fewer than ordinary rates predict** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/marconi-scientists/answers/ANS0DGGAEDXE5GH/no-excess-the-listed-deaths-are-fewer-than-ordinary-rates) Evidence for it, no test yet Evidence: 1 for Still possible [**Excess: more defence scientists died than chance allows** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/marconi-scientists/answers/ANS0DGGAERBQPZ9/excess-more-defence-scientists-died-than-chance-allows) Two measurements fall outside the range it predicts Evidence: 1 against Ruled out ## The tests | Measurement · 95% intervalratio | no excesspredicts +1 or less | excesspredicts +1 or more | Weighs | |---|---|---|---| | Listed GEC suicides and open verdicts / expected among GEC UK science and engineering graduates, 1982–1990+0.25 [+0.05, +0.45] | Consistent | Excluded | Heavily | | Same, at half the population rate (allowing for lower suicide rates among professionals)+0.51 [+0.12, +0.90] | Consistent | Excluded | Heavily | | Listed GEC suicides and open verdicts / expected among all GEC UK employees+0.05 [+0.01, +0.09] | Consistent | Excluded | Heavily | | All listed defence-worker suicides and open verdicts (15) / expected among UK industry directly employed on MoD work+0.04 [+0.01, +0.07] | Consistent | Excluded | Heavily | | All the measurements separate the answers, and all exclude “excess”. Each cell is computed from the interval and the answer’s predicted range; a measurement that fits every answer weighs nothing. | | | | ## Next steps 1 1 Check rates for professional men in the 1979–83 OPCS occupational mortality supplement Adds evidenceGood odds~3 h **22** score Details Replace the 0.5 multiplier with the published suicide SMR for scientists and engineers (OPCS Decennial Supplement on occupational mortality). Only a multiplier below about 0.25 would bring the graduate ratio up to 1. Ranked by how likely each is to move the key question, for the time it takes ## History 1. 1987[House of Commons: the lists hold a quarter of the suicides and open verdicts expected among GEC's UK graduates alone](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DGG5Z3Y5V7X/goods-and-services-defence-employment-written-answer-house)For: No excess: the listed deaths are fewer than ordinary rates predict 1. 1987[House of Commons: no realistic workforce makes the listed count an excess](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DGG5Z3Y5V7X/goods-and-services-defence-employment-written-answer-house)Against: Excess: more defence scientists died than chance allows 1. 1989[Monopolies and Mergers Commission: the lists hold a quarter of the suicides and open verdicts expected among GEC's UK graduates alone](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DGG78YY6FZK/the-general-electric-company-plc-siemens-ag-and-the-plessey)For: No excess: the listed deaths are fewer than ordinary rates predict 1. 1989[Monopolies and Mergers Commission: no realistic workforce makes the listed count an excess](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DGG78YY6FZK/the-general-electric-company-plc-siemens-ag-and-the-plessey)Against: Excess: more defence scientists died than chance allows 1. 2026[Office for National Statistics: the lists hold a quarter of the suicides and open verdicts expected among GEC's UK graduates alone](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DGG78MHBCW8/suicides-in-england-and-wales-reference-tables-2025)For: No excess: the listed deaths are fewer than ordinary rates predict 1. 2026[Office for National Statistics: no realistic workforce makes the listed count an excess](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DGG78MHBCW8/suicides-in-england-and-wales-reference-tables-2025)Against: Excess: more defence scientists died than chance allows 1. Nov 2026[Session 1: raised the question, ran one test and found two results bearing on its answers](https://mysteriesdept.com/records/SES0DGGH6FG4GHG/session-1-the-marconi-deaths-the-record-collected-and-the) ## Discussion 0 [Add to the discussion](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/marconi-scientists/questions/QST0DGG9HRA9QAX/were-there-more-deaths-among-british-defence-scientists-and%23discussion) Help with this question [ **Propose an answer** Something the evidence could support or rule out ] [ **Propose an answer** Something the evidence could support or rule out ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/marconi-scientists/questions/QST0DGG9HRA9QAX/were-there-more-deaths-among-british-defence-scientists-and%23add-answer) [ **Add evidence** A result for or against an answer ] [ **Add evidence** A result for or against an answer ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/marconi-scientists/questions/QST0DGG9HRA9QAX/were-there-more-deaths-among-british-defence-scientists-and%23add-evidence) [ **Ask a sub-question** A smaller question that would help settle this one ] [ **Ask a sub-question** A smaller question that would help settle this one ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/marconi-scientists/questions/QST0DGG9HRA9QAX/were-there-more-deaths-among-british-defence-scientists-and%23add-question) [ **Add a source** A paper, archive record or image ] [ **Add a source** A paper, archive record or image ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/marconi-scientists/questions/QST0DGG9HRA9QAX/were-there-more-deaths-among-british-defence-scientists-and%23add-source) Where it fits Marconi scientists' deaths, 1982–1990 **Were there more deaths among British defence scientists and engineers in 1982–1990 than ordinary death rates would produce?** Key question · you're here [ Ask a question under this one ]