# Did the 1587–1589 drought contribute to the colony's fate? · Lost Colony of Roanoke > Three answers have been proposed. The drought is established but its effect on this colony cannot be shown from the present evidence. leads, with… Source: https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/questions/QST0CQCC7VG6WM0/did-the-15871589-drought-contribute-to-the-colonys-fate Publisher: Mysteries Department Licence: CC BY 4.0 (credit Mysteries Department and link the page) Updated: 2026-10-26T11:57:55+00:00 --- **0** # Did the 1587–1589 drought contribute to the colony's fate? Asked 26 Oct 2026 by [**apollo** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/u/apollo)·Part of [What happened to the colonists left on Roanoke Island in 1587?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/questions/QST0CQCC6W858JF/what-happened-to-the-colonists-left-on-roanoke-island-in)·3 answers·0·0 following **Most likely: yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed them** Ahead on the evidence, not yet confirmed. It needs two reviews to be accepted. ## Where it stands Three answers have been proposed. The drought is established but its effect on this colony cannot be shown from the present evidence. leads, with evidence 1 for: supported by its tests. Two are still possible. ## Why it matters The tree rings put the colonists' first years in the worst drought in eight centuries⁠[[1]](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0CQCBX3R5MFA/the-lost-colony-and-jamestown-droughts), which would have hit their crops and their Native neighbours' surplus. ## Answers 3 [**The drought is established but its effect on this colony cannot be shown from the present evidence.** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/answers/ANS0CQCCJK8561D/the-drought-is-established-but-its-effect-on-this-colony) Supported by its tests Evidence: 1 for Most likely [**Yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed them.** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/answers/ANS0CQCCHVT35KB/yes-harvest-failure-for-colonists-and-neighbours-pushed-them) Partly supported by its tests Evidence: 2 for Most likely [**None of these.** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/answers/ANS0CQCCK2W00SD/none-of-these) Not tested enough to call either way Evidence: none yet Still possible ## History 1. 1998[Stahle et al. puts forward: yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed them.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0CQCBX3R5MFA/the-lost-colony-and-jamestown-droughts) 1. 1998[Stahle et al. puts forward: the drought is established but its effect on this colony cannot be shown from the present evidence.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0CQCBX3R5MFA/the-lost-colony-and-jamestown-droughts) 1. 1998[Stahle et al.: the most extreme drought in 800 years, 1587–1589.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0CQCBX3R5MFA/the-lost-colony-and-jamestown-droughts)For: Yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed them. 1. 1998[Stahle: at Jamestown, mortality tracks drought, with a correlation of −0.71 between percent mortality and…](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0CQCBXBJ478J/stahle-et-al-1998-jamestown-roanoke-climate-reconstructions)For: Yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed them. 1. 1998[Stahle: roanoke mortality data in the NOAA file are only for the 1586 military colony.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0CQCBXBJ478J/stahle-et-al-1998-jamestown-roanoke-climate-reconstructions)For: The drought is established but its effect on this colony cannot be shown from the present evidence. 1. 26 Oct 2026Asked on this site ## Discussion 0 [Add to the discussion](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/questions/QST0CQCC7VG6WM0/did-the-15871589-drought-contribute-to-the-colonys-fate%23discussion) Help with this question [ **Propose an answer** Something the evidence could support or rule out ] [ **Propose an answer** Something the evidence could support or rule out ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/questions/QST0CQCC7VG6WM0/did-the-15871589-drought-contribute-to-the-colonys-fate%23add-answer) [ **Add evidence** A result for or against an answer ] [ **Add evidence** A result for or against an answer ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/questions/QST0CQCC7VG6WM0/did-the-15871589-drought-contribute-to-the-colonys-fate%23add-evidence) [ **Ask a sub-question** A smaller question that would help settle this one ] [ **Ask a sub-question** A smaller question that would help settle this one ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/questions/QST0CQCC7VG6WM0/did-the-15871589-drought-contribute-to-the-colonys-fate%23add-question) [ **Add a source** A paper, archive record or image ] [ **Add a source** A paper, archive record or image ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/questions/QST0CQCC7VG6WM0/did-the-15871589-drought-contribute-to-the-colonys-fate%23add-source) Where it fits Lost Colony of Roanoke [**What happened to the colonists left on Roanoke Island in 1587?** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/questions/QST0CQCC6W858JF/what-happened-to-the-colonists-left-on-roanoke-island-in)Key question · most likely the colony split; a small party went to Croatoan to watch for ships and the main body moved inland **Did the 1587–1589 drought contribute to the colony's fate?** You're here · yes; harvest failure for colonists and neighbours pushed them to move or killed them [What did the carved word CROATOAN tell White?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/lost-colony-roanoke/questions/QST0CQCC7426TA8/what-did-the-carved-word-croatoan-tell-white)Most likely · that some had gone to Croatoan, while others had already moved inland as planned [ Ask a question under this one ]