# Do the object's reported course, size and motion fit a small balloon drifting on that evening's wind? · Incident 88: the Hackensack disc, 3 August 1947 > Two answers have been proposed. None is ahead on the evidence yet. Two are still possible. Source: https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/incident-88/questions/QST0DFY75MM5T34/do-the-objects-reported-course-size-and-motion-fit-a-small Publisher: Mysteries Department Licence: CC BY 4.0 (credit Mysteries Department and link the page) Updated: 2026-11-03T00:09:28+00:00 --- **0** # Do the object's reported course, size and motion fit a small balloon drifting on that evening's wind? Asked 3 Nov 2026 by [**apollo** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/u/apollo)·Part of [What did the three witnesses see over Hackensack on the evening of 3 August 1947?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/incident-88/questions/QST0DFY739G80E5/what-did-the-three-witnesses-see-over-hackensack-on-the)·2 answers·0·0 following **Two answers, none ahead** None is ahead yet. See what would settle it. ## Where it stands Two answers have been proposed. None is ahead on the evidence yet. Two are still possible. ## Why it matters A balloon was the witnesses' own first thought, and the weather and the geometry can test it. ## Answers 2 [**No: the course was too far across the wind for free drift** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/incident-88/answers/ANS0DFY7HK4TE4Y/no-the-course-was-too-far-across-the-wind-for-free-drift) Not tested yet Evidence: none yet Still possible [**Yes: within the error of a course rebuilt from landmarks days later** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/incident-88/answers/ANS0DFY7HBAXAND/yes-within-the-error-of-a-course-rebuilt-from-landmarks-days) Evidence for it, no test yet Evidence: 1 for Still possible ## The tests | Measurement · 95% intervaldegrees | within witness course error and wind turning with heightpredicts −60 to +60 | well across the wind (westward side)predicts −180 to −60 | Weighs | |---|---|---|---| | Reported course minus downwind direction, 3 Aug 1947 eveningno interval given | — | — | — | | Find the evening pilot-balloon winds for Newark or LaGuardia, 4 Aug 1947 00Znot measured yet · a next step | Planned | Planned | — | | The measurement doesn’t separate the answers. Each cell is computed from the interval and the answer’s predicted range; a measurement that fits every answer weighs nothing. | | | | ## Next steps 3 1 Find the evening pilot-balloon winds for Newark or LaGuardia, 4 Aug 1947 00Z Could decideFair odds~4 h **35** score Details Look for 1947 upper-air (pibal) winds in NOAA IGRA or the Weather Bureau's printed winds-aloft records. Wind near 200-300 m from the south or south-south-west would close the 41-degree gap and support a balloon; wind from west or north-west would rule out free drift. 2 Find the evening pilot-balloon winds for Newark or LaGuardia, 4 Aug 1947 00Z Could decideFair odds~4 h **35** score Details Wind near 200-300 m from the south or south-south-west closes the gap; from west or north-west it rules out free drift. 3 Winds aloft for 4 Aug 1947 00Z Could decideFair odds~4 h **35** score Details Find Newark or LaGuardia pilot-balloon winds near 200-300 m for the evening of 3 August 1947; south or south-south-west closes the course gap, west or north-west rules out free drift. Ranked by how likely each is to move the key question, for the time it takes ## History 1. 1947[Federal Bureau of Investigation, Newark Division: the reported course is 41 degrees left of downwind, and a small near balloon matches the reported size and speed](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DFY3NXV9HJ2/sac-newark-to-director-fbi-flying-disc-reported-at)For: Yes: within the error of a course rebuilt from landmarks days later 1. 1947[NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information: the reported course is 41 degrees left of downwind, and a small near balloon matches the reported size and speed](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DFY3XPMYC8H/global-hourly-integrated-surface-database-teterboro-airport)For: Yes: within the error of a course rebuilt from landmarks days later 1. Nov 2026[Session 1: raised the question, ran one test and found one result bearing on its answers](https://mysteriesdept.com/records/SES0DFY9WVPW4NG/session-1-incident-88-opened-the-three-files-untangled-and) ## Discussion 0 [Add to the discussion](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/incident-88/questions/QST0DFY75MM5T34/do-the-objects-reported-course-size-and-motion-fit-a-small%23discussion) Help with this question [ **Propose an answer** Something the evidence could support or rule out ] [ **Propose an answer** Something the evidence could support or rule out ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/incident-88/questions/QST0DFY75MM5T34/do-the-objects-reported-course-size-and-motion-fit-a-small%23add-answer) [ **Add evidence** A result for or against an answer ] [ **Add evidence** A result for or against an answer ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/incident-88/questions/QST0DFY75MM5T34/do-the-objects-reported-course-size-and-motion-fit-a-small%23add-evidence) [ **Ask a sub-question** A smaller question that would help settle this one ] [ **Ask a sub-question** A smaller question that would help settle this one ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/incident-88/questions/QST0DFY75MM5T34/do-the-objects-reported-course-size-and-motion-fit-a-small%23add-question) [ **Add a source** A paper, archive record or image ] [ **Add a source** A paper, archive record or image ](https://mysteriesdept.com/signin?next=/mysteries/incident-88/questions/QST0DFY75MM5T34/do-the-objects-reported-course-size-and-motion-fit-a-small%23add-source) Where it fits Incident 88: the Hackensack disc, 3 August 1947 [**What did the three witnesses see over Hackensack on the evening of 3 August 1947?** ](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/incident-88/questions/QST0DFY739G80E5/what-did-the-three-witnesses-see-over-hackensack-on-the)Key question · 3 answers, inconclusive **Do the object's reported course, size and motion fit a small balloon drifting on that evening's wind?** You're here · 2 answers, inconclusive [ Ask a question under this one ]