# Expected deaths and disappearances in a cleared workforce (base-rate model)

> To give the baseline a list of deaths and disappearances must beat before it counts as a cluster. Run 1 times on the site, with every result.

Source: https://mysteriesdept.com/methods/MTH0DCQT0608CVS/expected-deaths-and-disappearances-in-a-cleared-workforce  
Publisher: Mysteries Department  
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (credit Mysteries Department and link the page)  

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[Methods](https://mysteriesdept.com/methods)[Statistics](https://mysteriesdept.com/methods?kind=statistics-and-information)Expected deaths and disappearances in a cleared workforce (base-rate model)

Method · statistics

# Expected deaths and disappearances in a cleared workforce (base-rate model)

To give the baseline a list of deaths and disappearances must beat before it counts as a cluster.

**Statistics** Version **1.0** Licence **MIT1** runUsed on **1** mystery

## Questions it answers

- [Are the deaths and disappearances on the list connected?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists/questions/QST0DCQNKRMCAR2/are-the-deaths-and-disappearances-on-the-list-connected)

## Code Python

[Download module (.py)](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/private/a03a9790582091bb8312063f2ea675105489d1c87ad6fd7a209323737549c90f)`baserate.py`[View source](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/private/a03a9790582091bb8312063f2ea675105489d1c87ad6fd7a209323737549c90f)

## Runs and results 1 run

| Run | Mystery | Measured | Result | Against | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUN0DCQT6K8QMAE | America's | Expected homicides over the window, and expected homicides, suicides and accidental deaths combined, against the counts on the list | {'broad': {'total': 2518.2, 'suicide': 462.5, 'homicide': 189.5, 'open_missing_records': 178.2, 'unintentional_injury': 1866.2, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 482.3}, 'narrow': {'total': 266.9, 'suicide': 49, 'homicide': 20.1, 'open_missing_records': 18.9, 'unintentional_injury': 197.8, 'adult_missing_reports_per_year': 51.1}} | list_cases 15 · list_homicides 2 · list_missing_at_2026_10_28 4 | |

## Applied to

![America's missing scientists, 2021–2026](https://mysteriesdept.com/media/folio/missing-scientists-lead)

**[America's missing scientists, 2021–2026](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/missing-scientists)1 dataset** Base-rate inputs for the cleared aerospace and nuclear workforce

## References

1. [The base-rate argument: about 700,000 Top Secret-cleared aerospace and nuclear workers would see some 70 homicides and 180 suicides in 22 months, against ten names on the list.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQE14HCFBF/the-uap-body-count-doesnt-add-up)
1. [The 2024 US homicide rate, 5.9 per 100,000 (20,162 deaths), an input to the base-rate model.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQEHN0D208/faststats-assault-or-homicide)
1. [The 2024 US suicide rate, 14.4 per 100,000 (48,824 deaths), an input to the base-rate model.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQEHYMW51F/faststats-suicide-and-self-harm-injury)
1. [The 2024 US death rate from unintentional injury, 58.1 per 100,000 (197,449 deaths), an input to the base-rate model.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQEJEPDYE1/faststats-accidents-or-unintentional-injuries)
1. [NCHS Data Brief 572: 2024 suicide rates by sex for ages 25–44 and 45–64, used for the model's working-age range.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQERFTS7GX/changes-in-suicide-rates-in-the-united-states-from-2023-to)
1. [NCIC figures for 2024: 183,952 missing-person entries for people 18 and over, and 93,447 records still active on 31 December (25,493 of them under 18), used for the model's missing-person rates.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQERW4C3D0/2024-ncic-missing-person-and-unidentified-person-statistics)
1. [The US resident population aged 18 and over on 1 July 2024, 266,978,268, the denominator for the model's missing-person rates (Census table, copy hosted by the Hawaii DBEDT).](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQESATP6JW/estimates-of-the-total-resident-population-and-resident)
1. [The size of the NNSA workforce in fiscal 2022 (about 1,800 federal staff and 55,000 contractor staff at seven sites), part of the model's narrow workforce.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQESV6YJJ9/national-nuclear-security-administration-improvements-needed)
1. [NASA's civil-service headcount of 17,391 in fiscal 2025 (excluding JPL), part of the model's narrow workforce.](https://mysteriesdept.com/sources/SRC0DCQETC6HSCZ/one-fifth-of-nasas-workforce-take-voluntary-departure)

[Download module](https://mysteriesdept.com/files/private/a03a9790582091bb8312063f2ea675105489d1c87ad6fd7a209323737549c90f)

Category

Statistics

Version

1.0 · 29 Oct 2026

Licence

MIT

Language

Python

Inputs

inputs.json: workforce sizes, rates per 100,000 by cause, NCIC and Census counts, window dates, and the list's own counts, each with its citekey

Output

outputs.json: expected counts over the window and per year for each workforce, open missing records at any time, and ratios of expected to listed counts

Cite

[BibTeX](https://mysteriesdept.com/methods/MTH0DCQT0608CVS/expected-deaths-and-disappearances-in-a-cleared-workforce/cite.bib) · [APA](https://mysteriesdept.com/methods/MTH0DCQT0608CVS/expected-deaths-and-disappearances-in-a-cleared-workforce/cite.txt)

Develop this method

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Authors

**[apollo](https://mysteriesdept.com/u/apollo)** Wrote version 1.0