# Null model · Concept > What the data would look like if nothing were going on, used to judge whether something is. Source: https://mysteriesdept.com/concepts/CPT0DECW06JED24/null-model Publisher: Mysteries Department Licence: CC BY 4.0 (credit Mysteries Department and link the page) --- [Concepts](https://mysteriesdept.com/concepts)Null model Concept · method · in 19 mysteries # Null model What the data would look like if nothing were going on, used to judge whether something is. [Glozel: the inscribed tablets of the Fradin field](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/glozel)[Proto-Sinaitic and Wadi el-Hol: the first alphabet](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/proto-sinaitic)[Unread oracle bone characters](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/oracle-bone-undeciphered) A model of the result expected by chance or from known causes alone. A pattern counts as evidence only when it is unlikely under the null model: alignments at a monument against random directions, a cipher solution against what random keys produce, a dimming star against known variables. Every method on this site is asked what its null model is, and a claim with none is marked as such. ## Where it comes up **[Glozel: the inscribed tablets of the Fradin field](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/glozel)** [Q: Do the Glozel signs form a writing system that records a language?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/glozel/questions/QST0DEDTPBXAPB0/do-the-glozel-signs-form-a-writing-system-that-records-a) **[Proto-Sinaitic and Wadi el-Hol: the first alphabet](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/proto-sinaitic)** [Q: Are the Umm el-Marra clay cylinders of about 2400 BC alphabetic writing?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/proto-sinaitic/questions/QST0DEDW8MZFBEA/are-the-umm-el-marra-clay-cylinders-of-about-2400-bc) **[Unread oracle bone characters](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/oracle-bone-undeciphered)** OBI-Bench finds the best of 23 large multimodal models deciphering at about the level of untrained people, and EVOBC's evolution-chain baseline scores 16.7 percent top-1 on held-out read graphs. [OBI-Bench finds the best of 23 large multimodal models deciphering at about the level of untrained people, and EVOBC's…](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/oracle-bone-undeciphered/evidence/EVD0DEDTJ2A3HW3/obi-bench-finds-the-best-of-23-large-multimodal-models) **[Proto-cuneiform: the archaic texts of Uruk](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/proto-cuneiform)** A systematic study of the roughly 440 archaic names against Early Dynastic Sumerian and Semitic name patterns, with a statistical null model rather than a list of resemblances, would turn Englund's argument into a test… [Q: Do the roughly 440 personal names in the archaic texts follow Sumerian, Semitic or some other naming pattern?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/proto-cuneiform/questions/QST0DEDTDFDF2VV/do-the-roughly-440-personal-names-in-the-archaic-texts) **[Unread cuneiform: half a million tablets and the limits of Sumerian](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/unread-cuneiform)** Neural translation of Akkadian from five ORACC corpora reached BLEU 37.47 (transliteration) and 36.52 (cuneiform) on held-out sentences, against 23.51 and 27.09 for a translation-memory baseline. [Neural translation of Akkadian from five ORACC corpora reached BLEU 37.47 (transliteration) and 36.52 (cuneiform) on…](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/unread-cuneiform/evidence/EVD0DEDXNRE4WCG/neural-translation-of-akkadian-from-five-oracc-corpora) **[Eteocretan and Eteocypriot](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/eteocretan-eteocypriot)** [Q: Do Eteocretan and Eteocypriot continue the Bronze Age languages written in Linear A and Cypro-Minoan?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/eteocretan-eteocypriot/questions/QST0DEDZ8ZPM19P/do-eteocretan-and-eteocypriot-continue-the-bronze-age) **[Etruscan: the readable language that cannot be fully translated](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/etruscan-language)** [Q: To which language family, if any, does Etruscan belong?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/etruscan-language/questions/QST0DEDYJMKPX84/to-which-language-family-if-any-does-etruscan-belong) **[Phosphine in the clouds of Venus](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/venus-phosphine)** [The feature is an artefact of baseline fitting and calibration, not a property of Venus.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/venus-phosphine/answers/ANS0CQY1XNA2472/the-feature-is-an-artefact-of-baseline-fitting-and)[Bootstrap tests of the JCMT data with several baseline methods recover no significant line.](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/venus-phosphine/evidence/EVD0CQY1WXW6228/bootstrap-tests-of-the-jcmt-data-with-several-baseline)[ALMA project 2018.A.00023.S, Venus in Band 6, 5 March 2019](https://mysteriesdept.com/datasets/DAT0CQY24G22YT7/alma-project-2018-a-00023-s-venus-in-band-6-5-march-2019) **[Stonehenge](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/stonehenge)** [Strontium isotope data for the Stonehenge cremations (supplementary table)](https://mysteriesdept.com/datasets/DAT0CRWPQWP6SY3/strontium-isotope-data-for-the-stonehenge-cremations) **[Hurrian songs of Ugarit](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/hurrian-songs)** [Q: Do the numerals after each interval name count repetitions, notes or durations?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/hurrian-songs/questions/QST0DEDVH05XNA4/do-the-numerals-after-each-interval-name-count-repetitions) **[Cretan Hieroglyphic](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/cretan-hieroglyphic)** [Q: Which marks on the hieroglyphic seals are writing, and which are ornament?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/cretan-hieroglyphic/questions/QST0DEDWSVXAX3N/which-marks-on-the-hieroglyphic-seals-are-writing-and-which) **[Proto-Elamite and Linear Elamite](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/proto-elamite)** [Proto-Elamite sign list and EPS sign images](https://mysteriesdept.com/datasets/DAT0D1P9C7A0RPN/proto-elamite-sign-list-and-eps-sign-images) **[Vinča signs](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/vinca-signs)** Nobody has run the test the other way: a sign-sequence corpus checked against a null model of potters' marks of comparable size. [Q: Do the multi-sign Vinča sequences differ statistically from potters'-mark and emblem corpora of the same size?](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/vinca-signs/questions/QST0DEDW95HZ0YN/do-the-multi-sign-vinca-sequences-differ-statistically-from) **[Skinwalker Ranch](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/skinwalker-ranch)** [NUFORC sighting reports for Utah](https://mysteriesdept.com/datasets/DAT0D015RRW1JJE/nuforc-sighting-reports-for-utah) **[Tabby's star (KIC 8462852)](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/tabbys-star)** Nightly AAVSO V photometry (DFS, DUBF, SJMJ) during 18-23 October 2026 places at least one good measurement (error ≤ 0.012 mag) inside a 21-hour transit for 74 per cent of the 1,301.0-1,303.6 day window and any… [AAVSO observers covered the 18-23 October 2026 window and saw no transit over most of it](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/tabbys-star/evidence/EVD0DECQHEQH3KH/aavso-observers-covered-the-18-23-october-2026-window-and) **[Voynich Manuscript](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/voynich-manuscript)** [Unsupervised morphology (Morfessor Baseline)](https://mysteriesdept.com/methods/MTH08JFXDMJ63Z0/unsupervised-morphology-morfessor-baseline) **[Pictish symbol stones](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/pictish-symbols)** The other is a corrected version of the statistical test, run with a null model built from non-linguistic emblem systems of similar size and pairing structure, which would show whether the 2010 result survives Sproat's… **[Great houses of Chaco Canyon](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/chaco-canyon)** McCluskey's point that the noon shadow events at Fajada's other sites are about what chance gives is the general objection to alignment counts made without a null model . Why building stopped and people left. **[Rendlesham Forest, December 1980](https://mysteriesdept.com/mysteries/rendlesham-forest)** These statements were taken by the men's own chain of command within a week and are the baseline against which everything later should be read. ::: artifact A-HALT-MEMO2 beside Halt's memo is the second layer, written… ## Methods that use it 1 [Unsupervised morphology (Morfessor Baseline)](https://mysteriesdept.com/methods/MTH08JFXDMJ63Z0/unsupervised-morphology-morfessor-baseline) Voynich Manuscript MTH ## Cite it ``` Mysteries Department. (2026). Null model [Concept CPT0DECW06JED24]. https://mysteriesdept.com/r/CPT0DECW06JED24 ``` Key **CPT** 0DECW06JED24 Record Concept Field Method Related [Held-out test](https://mysteriesdept.com/concepts/CPT0DECW06RF522/held-out-test) Version 2 Added by [apollo](https://mysteriesdept.com/u/apollo) **How this page is made.** The definition is the site's, in its own words. “Where it comes up” is read from the answers, methods and evidence that name the concept. Related concepts [Held-out test](https://mysteriesdept.com/concepts/CPT0DECW06RF522/held-out-test) The record Every record is open data. Take this one as JSON, with its links and its history. [JSON](https://mysteriesdept.com/api/v1/records/CPT0DECW06JED24)